July marks the official start of the mayoral campaigns in the more than 5,500 Brazilian municipalities.

In a majority of cases, the candidacies, city council tickets and partisan alliances will have local or, at the most, regional motivations and implications.

However, in big cities, the local and the regional is also national; and the result of the 2008 elections will be an integral part of the correlation of forces of the 2010 presidential campaign preliminaries.

July marks the official start of the mayoral campaigns in the more than 5,500 Brazilian municipalities.

In a majority of cases, the candidacies, city council tickets and partisan alliances will have local or, at the most, regional motivations and implications.

However, in big cities, the local and the regional is also national; and the result of the 2008 elections will be an integral part of the correlation of forces of the 2010 presidential campaign preliminaries.

Thereby, it is important to study the scenarios in the main 79 Brazilian municipalities, there included the 26 state capitals and 53 other cities with more than 200 thousand voters.

In these cities, who will come out stronger, the government or the opposition? And within the governmental forces, who will be most strengthened?

The Workers’ Party (PT) is the party launching most mayoral candidacies in large cities (57). The PMDB comes in second (43), virtually tied with the PSDB (42). The remaining parties are like this: the DEM has 26 candidates; the PDT, 25 candidates; the PTB, 23 candidates; the PSB, 17 candidates; the PCdoB, 15 candidates; the PP, 14 candidates; the PPS, 11 candidates; and the PR, 9 candidates.

In other words, in the largest 79 cities, the parties that form the government’s base have launched 213 candidates, against 79 candidacies of the opposition parties. Even though the number of candidates does not entail a victory, it is reasonable to predict that the parties composing the government base will come out as victors in the 79 main Brazilian cities (and, in all likelihood, in the 5,500-plus Brazilian municipalities).

Yet this does not necessarily mean that these candidates, as well as their parties, will support the same and only candidate to the presidency of the Republic, both in the first and in the second rounds of the 2010 elections.

Indeed, if mayoral elections may signal something that is the possibility of a 2010 presidential election with several candidacies, even in the government ruling coalition.

A sign of that is the city of São Paulo, where parties inside the coalition supporting the Lula government are backing the three main candidates: the PMDB supports Kassab, the PTB supports Alckmin and the leftist parties support Marta Suplicy.

Another sign is in Rio de Janeiro, where the PMDB supports Paes, the PR is with Crivella, part of the leftist camp supports Jandira Feghali and the PT is going to run with its own candidate. Inside the government’s power base, the tendency is that the PMDB and the PT will elect the greatest number of mayors. In the small and medium-sized municipalities, the advantage is with the PMDB, whereas in the main 79 cities, the PT tends to fare better.

As mentioned earlier, the PT is the party that launched the largest number of mayoral candidates in the big cities, although not as many as in the last municipal elections.

In 2004, the PT launched 65 mayoral candidates in the capital cities and in the municipalities holding a second round, and supported 14 candidacies from other parties. In 2008, the PT has launched 57 mayoral candidacies and is supporting 22 candidacies of other parties.

Although having launched a large number of candidacies, the PT is more alliance-driven in 2008 than in 2004. Then, the PT did not support the PMDB in any of the largest municipalities. This year it is supporting PMDB candidates in six large cities. The same occurs with the Socialist Party (five candidates supported, against two in 2004); with the PDT (four candidates supported in 2008, against two in 2004); with the PCdoB (three candidates supported this year, against two in the previous election). In the case of the PTB, there was no alteration (one then, and one now). In the cases of the PPS (four then, one this year) and of the PR (three in 2004, none this year), there was a reduction in the support.

It is worth mentioning that in the 22 cities where the PT is supporting mayoral candidates of another party, in 16 cases the PT is participating in the ticket with the vice-mayor.

This is the case of Aracajú, Olinda and São Luis, where the PT is supporting PCdoB mayoral candidates. It is the case of Campinas, Campos, Guarujá and Serra, where it supports PDT mayoral candidates. It is the case of São João de Meriti, where it is backing a PHS mayoral candidate. It is the case of Ananindeua, Baurú, Campina Grande, Duque de Caxias, Goiânia and Uberaba, where it backs PMDB candidates. It is the case of Montes Claros, where it supports a PPS candidate. It is the case of Boa Vista, João Pessoa, São Vicente, Belo Horizonte and Uberlândia, where the party is supporting candidates of the Brazilian Socialist Party. It is the case of Aparecida de Goiânia, where it supports a PTB candidate. Lastly, it is the case of Cuiabá, where it runs as vice-mayor in a ticket headed by a PR candidate.

Viewed from a different perspective, the PCdoB is the party that supports the PT the most (38 municipalities). The second is the PSB (27). Then come the PR (20), the PDT (18), the PP (12), the PMDB (10), the PPS (9), the PTB (9), and the DEM (5).

In the 79 largest Brazilian cities, the PSDB does not support any Workers’ Party mayoral candidate. The reverse is also true, confirming that toucans and petistas are the opposite poles of Brazilian politics.

Scenarios and trends
An opinion poll done in June shows a politically favorable environment for the government and the Workers’ Party.

According to that poll, 67% of Brazilians are satisfied with Brazil; 63% believe the country improved over the last two years; 58% think that Brazil will get even better over the next two years.

84% evaluate positively President Lula’s performance. To 34%, the Lula government’s main achievement is the adoption of social programs, whereas for 20% of the respondents it is the economic policy.

The PT is the party most recalled by 36% of the electorate. To 63% of the electorate, the PT helps Brazil to grow.

The PT has 25% of the partisan preference, followed by the PMDB with 7%, the PSDB with 6% and the DEM with 2%.

The poll’s most important finding, however, is that the majority of the respondents are able to point the positive points of the Lula government. Yet, the majority cannot recall, spontaneously, anything negative.

On account of that, the right wing’s main concern is to build a negative agenda. The first attempt was with respect to ethics, to no avail. The ongoing second attempt is focusing on taxes. But the third and most dangerous attempt is with inflation.

All the big newspapers are insisting on the same point: the return of the ‘dragon of inflation’, and linking that to the allegedly excessive spending of the Lula administration. The tactic is clear: blaming the government and, as a byproduct, reducing the social and productive investments that underpin Lula’s and the Workers’ Party’s popularity.

As was pointed out in the June edition of the Periscope, this puts us before a two-fold debate: that of politics and of the economic policy. Both must address the needs of a country that continues to be one of the most unequal in the world, according to IPEA, a research agency.

In 2003, the average income of the 10% of the population earning higher wages was of R$ 4,620.00. In 2007, it rose to RS 4,850.00.

The 10% of the poorest workers earning less went from R$ 169 to R$ 206 on average, per month, in 2007.

Inequality across salaried workers, therefore, fell from 27.3 to 23.5 when comparing the highest and lowest wages.

Yet the overall social inequality cannot be measured only by wages. One must also take into account the overall wealth. In the 1960s, labor and capital received each 50% of what was produced. In 2003, labor had only 39.8 %, while capital kept 60.2%. In 2007, labor grabbed 39.1% and capital rose to 60.9%.

Changing this situation is one of the strategic challenges of the Brazilian left.