<br p=""

Ecuador<br p=""

Colombia<br p=""

Venezuela<br p=""

Argentina<br p=""

Mercosul Parliament<br p=""

The United States and George W. Bush’s woes <br p=""

Elections in Quebec<br p=""

The European Union’s 50th anniversary<br p=""

Parliamentarian elections in Finland<br p=""

French elections nearing<br p=""

Dwindling peace prospects for the Middle East. Iran likely to be attacked<br p=""

Constitutional referendum in Egypt<br p=""

Zimbabwe<br p=""

Congo<br p=""

Bill establishing Private Property approved in China<br p=""

Elections in East Timor<br p=""

World Bank’s fund for the reduction of CO2 emissions renewed<br p=""

Ecuador

The showdown between President Rafael Correa and Ecuador’s right-wing opposition parties appears to be tilting in favor of the former. After passage by Congress –in a session boycotted by nearly half the deputies (42% of the total quorum) – of a motion to hold a referendum to consult the Ecuadorian population on whether there should be an election to form a Constituent Assembly with powers to approve a new constitution for the country, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal finally set a date for that to occur.

Since Congress appoints justices, the country’s right-wing parties and parliamentarians sought to reverse the decision by dismissing some judges from office. The judiciary branch’s reaction was to dismiss of 57 of the lawmakers who had voted in favor of that decision, charging them with unlawfully trying to impede the functioning of the Judiciary and summoned alternates to replace those ousted.

A group of lawmakers who had had their terms annulled forced access into Congress and occupied the plenary in a move to impede their substitutes to be sworn in. Yet, little by little, alternate started taking their new offices and today Parliament is able to function.

That does not mean, however, that deputies are making the government’s life easy. They are not, and the Patriotic Front deputies, former president Lucio Gutierrez’s party, and those even more to the right, linked to the PRIAN and the Social Christian Party, are doing all they can to damage the government and retain their privileges.

When the result of the referendum, held on 15 April, was announced, more than 80% of the votes favored calling an election for a National Constituent Assembly, which is to be composed of 130 delegates. The ‘no’ votes were slightly over 12%, and blank and null votes around 6%. Undoubtedly, an important victory for the president.

The doubt, however, remains over the political composition of the Constituent, since Correa, as his colleague Evo Morales in Bolivia, lacks a strong partisan structure to back him up.

Apparently, he is counting on his approval rating, today exceeding 60%, and the unpopularity of the incumbent parliamentarians, who enjoy only a 5-percent approval rating, to attain a Congress composition capable of changing the country’s Constitution in order to ensure the necessary transformations required by the Ecuadorian society and economy, as well as have the incumbent deputies to step down and elect new parliamentarians in keeping with the new Constitution. Read more.

Colombia

In Periscope 12, we focused on the Supreme Court of Justice’s investigations that led to the arrest of nine parliamentarians of President Álvaro Uribe’s governmental coalition, all involved with paramilitary groups, and the dismissal of Foreign Relations Minister Maria Consuelo Araújo, the sister of Senator Álvaro Araújo, one of the arrested.

Now a denunciation, supposedly leaked by the CIA to an American newspaper, also accuses General Mario Montoya, the commander of the Colombian army, of involvement with the paramilitary. According to the story, he allegedly made a deal with Diego Murillo, Medellín department’s main paramilitary chief, to eliminate leftist groups in the region. As a result, 14 people have disappeared, including some trade unionists and human rights activists.

It has become increasingly clearer the strong connection between these paramilitary groups with the political forces supporting Uribe and, since investigations point to members of the government, it would come as no surprise if, sooner or later, the president’s own involvement surfaced.

To further illustrate the intertwinement of Colombia’s armed ultra right with government institutions and big business, a recent ruling by a US court sentenced Chiquita Brands International to pay a US$ 25-million fine for having handed over US$ 1.7 million to paramilitary groups via its subsidiary in Colombia, Chiquita Banana. A few years ago, Coca Cola had already been charged with hiring paramilitary to fight against the beverage trade union and for the disappearance of two trade unionists.

In face of this governmental crisis, the opposition took an important step in establishing a political alliance between the Alternative Democratic Pole and the Liberal Party. Although the government has a majority in the Colombian parliament, these two parties together represent almost 40% of the 2006 total votes and may play an important legislative role. Read more at http://www.cfr.org/publication/12955/colombias_parapolitics.html?breadcrumb=%2F .

Venezuela

In addition to the initiatives adopted by President Hugo Chávez in the economic field, as the proposal for the creation of the Bank of the South (see Periscope 12), since his reelection last December he has also been working to create a political party that would unite the different groups supporting his administration and sustain his project of a 21st century socialism.

Among the 20 parties or fractions that support him today, practically all of them have joined the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) with the exception of parties “For Social Democracy – We can” (Podemos), the “Motherland For All (PPT) and the Communist Party of Venezuela (PCV). These parties want to hold a broader internal debate on their possible dissolution and merging with the new party, in spite of the pressure they have been receiving to decide as quickly as possible.

In Chávez’ words: “I open doors for them because I want to make a true revolution so that we are no longer tied to the sectarianism, partisanship and political pork-barreling that have done so much damage to this people”.

The “Podemos” is a party with origins in the Movement toward Socialism (MAS), while the PPT represents a schism of the Radical Cause, the R Cause. Both the MAS and the R Cause supported Chávez in the early days of his first term and then broke up with him, stemming the two dissident groups that support the government today.

The debate has already led to divisions within the “Podemos”, with Governor Carlos Giménez, of the department of Yaracuy, and five other deputies joining the PSUV, while a similar process occurs inside the PPT.

The PCV, as a more disciplined party, still holds internal debates without allowing divergences to become public. The extraordinary congress held in March approved a resolution praising the unity of the Venezuelan leftist forces around Chávez’ s leadership, but still wants to wait to see how the new party will be organized. Reading between the lines of the resolution, it is perceptible that the PCV has doubts as to whether the new party will become Marxist-Leninist. At any rate, whatever the decision made by the PCV, a schism seems inevitable.

In light of December’s electoral result, it is clear that President Hugo Chávez has the support of the majority of the population and has managed to build a left-leaning political alliance to govern. However, his insistence on having the support of a “Single Party” rather than a “United Party” suggests that Chávez no longer sees alliances and a permanent political debate with Venezuela’s political forces and the population as something as important as it was in the past, which is regrettable. Read more at www.tribuna-popular.org and http://www.agenciapulsar.org/nota.php?id=9760 .

Argentina

A strike by public school teachers for wage increases in the province of Neuquén, in southern Argentina, set the political-electoral agenda of the next presidential elections due October this year.

Riot police killed a teacher, Carlos Fuentealba, during the crackdown ordered by the province’s governor, Jorge Sobisch, against a demonstration on April 4. Fuentealba was hit in the head by a teargas grenade shot from point blank range.

Against the repression and in support of their colleagues in Neuquén, the National Teachers’ Union of the Republic of Argentina (CETERA) decided to call for a general strike, just that now the claim in the province is not only for a pay rise but for the governor’s resignation as well.

The incident might hurt Sobisch’s presidential nomination by the right wing faction of the Peronista Justicialist Party (PJ), and his ally’s, Mauricio Macri, who is running for the second time in the Buenos Aires’ mayoral elections. Macri is the president of Argentina’s most popular soccer team, Boca Juniors, and had already run in the 2003 municipal elections being defeated by the-then incumbent Aníbal Ibarra, representing the Front for a Country in Solidarity (FREPASO), who was supported by President Kirchner in the second round.

Under the Argentinean electoral law, opposing candidates within the same political party may all take part in an election (sub-slates), as happened in 2003, when both Menem and Kirchner ran for the PJ.

Mercosul Parliament

A recently held meeting in Brasilia decided that the Mercosul Parliament is to be formed on 7 May 2007 and headquartered in Montevideo.

In the meantime, the 18 MPs representing each of the full Mercosur members – Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela – will be appointed from among the incumbent national deputies and senators and, as from 2010, all shall be elected in a number proportional to the population of each country.

To date, only Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay appointed their representatives.

The meeting also decided on the setting up of three inter-governmental working groups to deliberate on Parliament’s inaugural ceremony, administrative aspects such as the organization’s structure, attributions and bylaws, and the budget.

With regard to the bylaws, the initial objective is to define how the new institution will relate to the existing ones, particularly with the Common Market Group, Mercosul’s highest executive body, which is composed of the five presidents. Another item that should be defined is how each country’s members of the Mercosul Parliament are to act before their respective national legislatures.

These decisions represent positive steps toward deepening the regional integration as Parliament acquires some decision-making power within the institutional framework of the Mercosul. Read more at http://www.prensamercosur.com.ar/apm/nota_completa.php?idnota=3041 .

The United States and George W. Bush’s woes

Seizing the upcoming IRS April 17 deadline, this month’s issue of the New Yorker magazine brings on its cover origami tanks and combat aircraft using American income tax declaration forms. Strong criticism against increased government expenditures and more troops, requested by President George W. Bush and sanctioned by the legislature, also marks the fourth anniversary of the increasingly unpopular War in Iraq. For more, log on to http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/toc/2007/04/09/toc_20070402 .

Early on, just a small fraction of the population and of Congress was against the military offensive in Iraq and, had the operation been victorious, most would still be supporting the war today. However, the astronomical costs of the operation, the deaths of over 3000 soldiers, political internal maneuvers designed to guarantee the American presence in the Middle East, loss of support from traditional allies and a considerable increase in anti-American sentiment have cast doubt and instilled dissatisfaction to the American people with regard to the current administration’s foreign policy.

A survey periodically carried out by think tanks Public Agenda and the Council on Foreign Relations in association with its publication Foreign Affairs, supported by Ford and William and Flora Hewett Foundations, to gauge the level of confidence of the American population in their country’s foreign policy, reached alarming levels according to the survey’s organizers.

The level measured in March 2007 reached 137 points of a total 200, with 150 indicative of a crisis. The score attained demonstrates Americans’ high anxiety and increased skepticism in relation to the use of military power and a perceived need for resorting to alternatives that are more diplomatic. Six out of every ten respondents believe the government is not being honest about its foreign policy, a 10-percent increase when compared to a survey conducted just six months ago. The data also revealed that 67% believe the country is in the wrong path against 58% in the last poll, and 70% want American troops to be withdrawn from Iraqi territory over the next 12 months. Read more about the survey in the report Confidence in US Foreign Policy at http://www.publicagenda.org/foreignpolicy/pdfs/foreign_policy_index_spring07.pdf .

Notwithstanding the clamor expressed by the survey, George W. Bush has scaled up efforts to keep American troops in Iraq and increase the budget allocated for the invaded country’s attempted stabilization. In addition to having requested an additional force of 20000 troops to be sent to Iraq and Afghanistan in January, early this month of April he requested 8000 more and, to everyone’s surprise, that 12000 National Guard troops join the new contingent in early 2008, once again signaling to the continuity of operations in both countries.

On 22 March, two days after the war’s fourth anniversary, the American Congress passed by a narrow margin –219 against 212 votes– a bill submitted by majority leader and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D- CA) establishing a calendar for the withdrawal of the American troops from Iraq by August 2008.

The problem with the bill’s text is that, apart from delaying the troops’ withdrawal for another long 17 months, it allows the continuity of the operations currently being conducted. According to the text, troops remaining in Iraq after the withdrawal shall only be deployed for diplomatic protection, anti-terror operations and training of the Iraqi Security Forces.

The Senate also approved a more moderate bill by a vote of 51 to 47 proposing the withdrawal to begin in March 2008.

Bush has declared that he will veto both bills. The president’s remarks with regard to the two resolutions criticized a strategy he believes will encourage American enemies to expect a withdrawal calendar as dangerous to the country’s troops and safety, expressing his will to veto both bills.

Besides the Iraq war-related issues, President Bush is facing embarrassment from within his own cabinet. The trial in February and March of Lewis “Scooter” Libby, Vice-President Dick Cheney’s former chief of staff, found the staffer responsible for leaking the identity of former CIA operative Valerie Plame, a ruling that is bound to lead to his conviction. Read more at http://economist.com/world/na/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8819848 .

Now, even before the dust settled, Attorney-General Alberto Gonzales is said of involvement in the dismissal for political reasons of eight state prosecutors, as they did not systematically support Bush’s policies and priorities. Gonzales became known for his opinion granting a legal justification for the non-application of the Geneva Conventions to those detained under charges of terrorism, and authorizing the use of torture. Even some Republicans made public statements expressing their views that Gonzales should be dismissed for his loss of credibility.

State prosecutors are appointed to the office by political affinity with the president and cases of dismissals halfway through their terms are rare. Gonzales insists that the firings of the state prosecutors were motivated by their poor performance. His hearing before the Senate is scheduled for 17 April.

Meanwhile the 2008 presidential campaign gains momentum for the Democratic Party’s pre candidates. Barack Obama’s staff produced a TV ad by the name of “Vote Different”, in which Hillary Clinton is portrayed as George Orwell’s “1984” character ‘Big Brother’. According to the candidate’s advisors, the ad was made without his consent and, therefore, he cannot be made liable for it. For more, access http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6h3G-lMZxjo .

John Edwards, another strong Democratic Party presidential candidate, announced that his wife, Elizabeth Edwards, has cancer again, yet he will not step down from the race.

In spite of all the party’s internal divisions, Democrats accomplished a historical feat by defeating Republicans in the campaign fundraising issue. Hillary Clinton announced she collected US$ 26 million, while Obama raised US$ 25 million and John Edwards, US$ 14 million. On the Republican side, Mitt Romney was the big surprise, raising US$ 21 million against Giuliani’s US$ 15 million and John McCain’s US$ 12.5 million.

The publication of these figures points to two conclusions. The first is that the 2008 elections are bound to be the most expensive in US history. The second is that the public campaign funding system that came in force after the 1970 Watergate scandal has its days counted since all the major candidacies are preparing to reject a cap on public funds. Read more in http://www.thenation.com/blogs/campaignmatters .

Elections in Quebec

Quebec is one of Canada’s ten provinces and, due to the French colonization, the only one where the majority of the population is French speaking and Catholic. Owing to Quebec’s cultural differences in relation to the rest of the country and the province’s historically troubled political relations with the central government, there has long been a strong separatist sentiment among a considerable share of the population. In a referendum held in 1995 ‘no’ votes against the independence of Quebec won by a minute 50 thousand voting margin.

Partisan life strongly reflects that with national parties such as the Conservative, the Liberal and the New Democratic Party struggling for Quebec’s votes, while some of the province’s parties only act locally; nevertheless, at the Canadian Party they act united under the Quebecois Bloc.

Quebec’s three main parties are the right-wing anti-independence Liberal Party of Quebec (PLQ), the Democratic Action of Quebec (ADQ), also right wing but in favor of more autonomy without breaking away from the federation, and the Quebecois Party (PQ), whose origin lies in the 1960’s independence movement. For this reason, the last one was viewed as a progressive party, strongly bound to the population’s interests. Nevertheless, when it was at the head of the province in the 1980’s, the Quebecois Party implemented a wide array of neoliberal-driven measures that greatly damaged its image.

The 26 March 2007 voting came with a surprise. For the first time in a hundred years, Quebec will have a minority ruled government headed by the PLQ.

Although it won the elections, the PLQ had less support than in the last polls and outnumbered the second most voted party, the ADQ, by only 7 deputies. The polls gave the PLQ 48 of the 125 deputies to the National Assembly, the Provincial Parliament, down 24 from the last legislature.

Politically the winner was the conservative ADQ, led by Mario Dumont. The party obtained 31% of the votes and went from 5 to 41 deputies. Its main banner is the demand for more autonomy to the province. The ADQ is expected to increase its power and gain more support from the federal government if the province remains as part of Canada.

The second most voted party in the previous elections, the Quebecois Party of Andre Boisclair, ended in third, with 28% of the votes and 36 deputies, losing nine deputies from one election to the next.

The ADQ knew how to capitalize on the Quebecois constituency’s discontent with the province’s two traditional parties and interrupted the bipartisanship that characterized its political system, while also following the trend that resulted in a conservative minority government at the national level last year.

This is the first time since 1878 that a party not relying on an absolute majority in Parliament will govern the province. In addition, the Quebecois Party was unable for the first time to break the 30-percent vote barrier. It was also the worst result for the Liberals in decades. Read more at http://www.uesb.br/politeia/v2/artigo_08.pdf .

In spite of the small difference between the three parties’ representations and given the Canadian political tradition, a coalition government is almost unthinkable. Quebec’s Prime Minister, Jean Charest, will be responsible for setting up the new cabinet.

Only 71% of the 5.6 million voters of Canada’s second largest province turned out at the election. According to data supplied by Radio Canada, this is the second lowest turnout since 1976. Read more at http://www.radio-canada.ca/nouvelles/electionsQc2007/lesSuites.shtml
and http://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/fr/index.asp .

The European Union’s 50th anniversary

March 2007 marks the 50th anniversary of the formation of the European Union, with Germany, currently presiding over the Council of the European Union, hosting the date’s celebrations.

Although the first step for a post-Second World War European integration was the 1951 Treaty of Paris, with the creation of a coal and steel free trade zone, the Treaty of Rome –signed on 25 March 1957 by France, Western Germany, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg– is regarded as the integration’s institutional framework as it established the European Economic Community.

Capitalizing on the commemorations, the presidents and prime ministers convened in Berlin presented a three-page declaration with the European Union’s accomplishments and aspirations for the future. Angela Merkel, Germany’s Chancellor, Hans-Gert Pöttering, president of the European Parliament and José Manuel Durão Barroso, president of the European Commission, were the only signatories to the document, which took the care of not openly making reference to the prospect of reviving the European Constitution topic, as the German government wanted.

A veiled reference to such effort transpires in the text of the Berlin Declaration when it stated, "we are united in our aim of placing the European Union on a renewed common basis before the European Parliament elections in 2009”.

While Italy’s Prime Minister Romano Prodi and Angela Merkel expressed their belief in the necessity of rapidly approving the Constitution, the Czech Republic’s president, Vaclav Klaus, stated that hurrying to approve it goes against the European tradition. Klaus also underscored that all the secrecy surrounding the terms of the Berlin Declaration point to a dangerous trend within the EU in that a called-for debate is suppressed from the process.

The Constitution – ratified by 16 of the 27 member states – was however rejected by the French and Dutch electorates in referendums held in 2005, which greatly undermines the document’s legitimacy. Read the whole text of the Berlin Declaration.

Inside the German parliament, the opposition expressed its criticism to the Berlin Declaration saying that, as the EU is constituted today, it is a neoliberal project lacking the necessary social dimension.

According to Gregor Gysi, leader of the oppositionist Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS), what was needed was a shorter text with clearer goals so that the Constitution could ensure increased rights to the citizens, and that only after referendums in all the countries of the bloc should it be accepted. That way the document would have an effect and bring improvements to the bloc’s democratic process.

Another German opposition leader, Renate Künast, of the Green Party, stated that the issue is that the EU insists on reproducing a model driven by short-term industrial interests instead of proposing that the next fifty years be seized to build an ecologic and social Europe.

Still, all parties agree that a legal framework for Europe is necessary at least to guarantee a European identity, assuming that its borders are defined.

The Berlin Declaration states that, from now on, the continent’s non-natural division has been overcome and the dream of unification became a reality, perhaps indicating that the process might have been completed.

On the other hand, apart from the word "aperture", there was no mention to new accessions, while the next in line, official candidates to becoming members of the bloc, Turkey and Croatia, were not even invited to the celebration. Read more: Article 1 / Article 2 / Article 3.

In addition to celebrating the anniversary of the Treaty of Rome, European Union leaders had previously announced that they would work to reduce carbon emissions by 20% until 2020, so that by then emissions reach a level lower than that of 1990. Merkel declared that she might commit her country to a greater effort provided other developed countries, as the United States, follow the same path.

The announcement is a consequence of the recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and also draws on the Stern Report, coordinated by UK’s former advisor to the chancellor of the exchequer, Nicholas Stern, who estimates that, should GHG emissions remain at today’s levels, the world will be spending around 20% of its 2050 GDP just to fight the consequences of the greenhouse effect.

Parliamentarian elections in Finland

Parliamentarian elections held on 18 March in Finland confirmed the current conservative political trend in Scandinavia, Norway being the only exception. The social democratic party that traditionally obtained the first or second place in terms of votes and around 200 seats in Parliament fell and is now the third political force.

The party that grew the most was the right wing Party of the National Alliance, which came in second with 22.3% of the votes. The Party of the Center, still the most voted party, fell slightly to 23.1% of the ballots, while the Social Democratic Party got 21.4%.

The outgoing ruling coalition was formed by the Party of the Center, the Social Democrats and the small Swedish People’s Party. The last one obtained 4.5 percent in the last elections and, thus, the coalition today represents 49% of the votes, requiring the adhesion of another party to obtain a majority and compose a government.

Theoretically, the Greens or the leftist slate could produce a majority, but it is unclear whether they are willing to do so or whether the Party of the Center will accept them, opting, rather, for parties more to the right of the political spectrum.

Incumbent Prime Minister Matti Vanhanem, who has already admitted that negotiations will be very hard, will lead informal talks aiming at composing a new cabinet that is to be sworn in on 17 April. Read more.

French elections nearing

Twelve candidates managed to fulfill the formalities required by French legislation to take part in the next presidential race in France by the 1 April deadline. The four women and eight men are François Bayrou (UDF), Olivier Besancenot (LCR), José Bové (Anti-liberal Alliance), Marie-George Buffet (PCF), Arlete Laguiller (Workers’ Struggle), Jean-Marie Le Pen (National Front), Fréderic Nihours (CNPT), Ségolène Royal (PSF), Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP), Gerard Schirardi (PT), Phillipe de Villiers (MPF –Movement for France) and Dominique Voynet for the Greens.

This Periscope had only failed to anticipate the names of right-wing extremists Nihours and Villiers as potential candidates. (See Periscope nº 11). Jacques Chirac, the incumbent president, announced that he would not run and, after some hesitation with regard to his support, declared his option for Sarkozy.

From a political-ideological perspective, this electoral battle is being waged by:
Left: LCR, Workers’ Struggle and PT, Trotskyites; and the PCF, communist and the Verts;
Center left: PS and social democracy;
Center right: UMP, which succeeded Gaullist “Rassemblement pour la Republique” and created in 2002 to run in the parliamentarian elections; and the UDF, of Christian-Democrat origin;
Right and/or Far-right: the National Front, CPNT and MPF, whose main banner is xenophobia.

The latest polls show the same picture in terms of electoral preferences of the past weeks: UMP’s Sarkozy in the first place, followed by Socialist Ségolène Royal, Bayrou of the UDF and Le Pen of the National Front. Sarkozy would obtain 29% and Le Pen, 16%. All candidates are swinging up and down in between this range, while the margin of error is 2%. All other remaining candidates have between less than 1% and a maximum of 3% of the respondents’ preferences. The six candidates most to the left could together get something like 10% of the votes.

Yet, confirmation of these figures depends on how the campaign unfolds and chiefly on the electorate’s willingness to turn out at Election Day, since voting is not mandatory in France.

The issues meriting the most emphasis by all candidates are immigration and security, with rightist Sarkozy proposing the creation of a xenophobic-sounding Ministry of Immigration and Identity. Sarkozy seems not to be concerned with stimulating radical sentiment and splitting the French society over the sensitive issue of immigration.

According to leftist newspaper Liberation, Cesare Battisti, a former member of Italy’s Red Brigades arrested in Brazil in March, was a victim of the Sarkozy candidacy. Battisti received asylum in France from the 1980’s until 2004, benefited by former President François Miterrand’s policy of refusing to extradite Italians convicted for political reasons provided they quit arms. In 2004, however, the Supreme Court of France accepted his extradition, prompting him to escape to Brazil seeking refuge.

Ségolène has tried to campaign on traditional Socialist banners and proposals to address France’s pressing economic hardships. Nevertheless, forced by the circumstances, she has dealt with the question of the immigrants living in France by adopting a speech that underscores patriotism and national values.

Bayrou, in turn, has called for equilibrium and the unification of all around what he considers the interests of France.

As for now, the only certainty is that there is bound to be a second-round runoff election in May. Read more: Article 1 / Article 2 / Article 3

Dwindling peace prospects for the Middle East. Iran likely to be attacked

Our commentary on the four years of the invasion of Iraq by the coalition led by the United States, apart from debates in American public opinion, does not include any breakthrough in terms of peace and stability for that war-torn country. The daily carnage proceeds as the symbolic mark of half a million Iraqis, those who have fled the country, is overcome. At the time of the UN Secretary-General Ban ki Mon’s visit to Baghdad, a rocket exploded less than fifty meters away from where he was delivering his speech.

The Bush administration strategy is to escalate the conflict by sending more troops into Afghanistan and Iraq, and provoke Iran. There are rumors that an engagement plan against Iran is ready. This is why the US is pushing for an ultimatum against Iran’s nuclear program at the UN Security Council to guarantee “legitimacy and alliances for the attack”, though only sanctions have been approved thus far. There is no question that Israel’s air might is part of such strategy.

The Iranian government, in turn, has announced that the country already possesses the capability to enrich uranium to the level and in quantities necessary to be used both as nuclear fuel and for military purposes, though it reiterated that the country’s program has peaceful purposes. Some specialists doubt however if such capability has actually been reached.

Another fact that contributed to raise the temperature in the region was the detention of 15 British military patrolling the Chat-el-Arab waterway, which separates Iran and Iraq, by Iranian forces. According to the Iranians, the British soldiers violated their territory several times during the patrol, something acknowledged by some of those detained, though later denied.

The British soldiers were released before Easter, apparently as the result of a negotiation whose tenor still remains unknown, though an Iranian who had been detained by the American forces in Iraq was released at the same time, signaling a likely prisoners’ exchange.

At any rate, it seems that the British are more sensible than their American allies are. Apart from tackling the Iranian issue differently, they are also gradually reducing their presence in Iraq and transferring control of the Basra region to Iraqi security forces.

In Palestine, the news is the establishment of a Fattah/Hamas national unity government. Such intention was announced last year but failed then due to a series of divergences between both parties, which even came to be expressed by armed confrontation. The accord struck keeps Mahmoud Abbas as president of the Palestinian National Authority and Ismail Haniya as Prime Minister, redistributes some ministries and hints at new attempts to seek a peace agreement with Israel.

The Saudi government has just re-submitted a proposal for an accord, which has existed since 2002, by which the State of Israel would be recognized, Israel would withdraw to and accept 1967 borders, refugees would be allowed to return to Palestine and Palestinian State with its capital in Eastern Jerusalem would be recognized.

Israel’s prime minister declared that, if Saudi Arabia brings together moderate Arab leaders and the President of the Palestinian National Authority, he would attend the meeting to discuss the proposal and present the Israeli position. Although admittedly a more open stance, it is widely known that Olmert has no political clout in Israel to broker such a deal. In addition, he is believed to oppose a Palestinian capital in Jerusalem and the return of the refugees.

With regard to the first point, he has made countless statements against it when he was the mayor of Jerusalem and as for the refugees, the Israelis fear becoming an even smaller ethnic minority than today. There is also the case of the Israeli soldier captured by the Palestinians in mid-2006, as well as that of the thousands of Palestinians held in Israeli prisons.

The end of an Olmert administration would mean the return of the Likud to power. At first, such an outcome would play to the population’s warring sentiment, stirred by the Israeli defeat while trying to occupy southern Lebanon last year. Notwithstanding, it is also important to recall that the Likud was the party that negotiated a normalization of relations with Egypt.

It all depends on the attitude the US and the EU will adopt in relation to the region

Constitutional referendum in Egypt

Egypt’s constitutional reform was approved by 75.9% of valid votes in the referendum held on last 26 March, although only 27.1% of the 35 million Egyptians eligible to vote did actually participate. The content of the reform is being widely criticized by members of the European Union, the United States, human rights organizations and by the country’s opposition, headed by the Muslim Brotherhood.

The reform, referred to a vote only six days after its passage in parliament, includes suggestions made by President Hosni Mubarak for some 34 constitutional articles that, according to him, should broaden democratic rights to Egyptians.

Some of these measures are well accepted, such as a greater control by Parliament over the government’s expenditures and more power to the Prime Minister, though today the Prime Minister is appointed by the president. Still, the amendments proposed will grant the Egyptian State more power to limit freedom of expression and political liberties.

Among other amendments in the reform, there is one to article 88 that drastically reduces the role of magistrates in overseeing elections, while also establishing their replacement by an electoral commission whose composition is to be defined by a future law. The measure comes in response to allegations by electoral judges of frauds in the 2005 polls.

Another controversial change was made regarding article 179. In the 25 years Mubarak has been in power, an emergency law was enacted vesting the president’s security forces with extraordinary powers and justifying the use of torture. The bill was voided, yet will be replaced by another anti-terrorist law whose content is still unknown but which would override three other articles that ensure the protection of civil liberties. In theory, this bill would be applied only to terrorism-related cases, but the fear is that it may be used against the opposition to the government, just as the former emergency law was used.

The amendments also formally banned religious parties and lay the ground for the construction of an electoral system based on party lists, which is likely to exclude from Parliament the only real opposition, the 88 members of the Islamic Brotherhood elected as independents in 2005, who were about to set up a party. This group represents one fifth of the Egyptian Parliament and has been Mubarak’s major adversary, having even boycotted the referendum.

Amnesty International described the set of measures approved in the referendum as the greatest erosion of human rights that happened over the last 26 years. According the Amnesty International, such constitutional amendments “strike at the heart of constitutional protection of key human rights”.

The most important outcome of this new body of measures is that Parliament may be extinct and new elections called. In face of the new rules, the incumbent government’s main opponents have very little chance. Read more at www.sis.gov.eg and www.amnestyusa.org.

Zimbabwe

The announcement made by Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe that he would call parliamentarian and presidential elections for March 2008, running yet again as presidential candidate, stirred this southern African country.

Mugabe still retains some prestige in Africa and with a part of the population of Zimbabwe for his prominent role in the country’s liberation war in the 1970’s and for having implemented the agrarian reform that culminated in the expropriation of the land that belonged to the white farmers who resisted leaving the country. The land was distributed to his Zimbabwe Army of National Unity (ZANU) guerrilla veterans that he commanded against the racist government of Ian Smith, which came to power in 1980 and later became Mugabe’s political party.

Today however he relies on heavy-handed politics, victimizing any political opposition, but chiefly targeting the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and Zimbabwe’s Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU).

Morgan Tsvangirai, incumbent president of the MDC and former president of the ZCTU, who was defeated by Mugabe in the last presidential elections, irregular by international observers’ standards, at the moment is under medical treatment in South Africa to recover from injuries he suffered at a recent detention at the hands of Zimbabwe’s political police.

The country is under boycott by many developed countries because of last election’s incidents, which contributed to further worsen the economy. The ZCTU organized a 48-hour general strike on April 4–5, demanding changes in the country’s economic policy to rein in a skyrocketing inflation rate -1,730 percent a year- and an appalling 80-percent unemployment rate in a country that, together with South Africa, was once considered the region’s main food producer.

The MDC recently announced that the party would only take part in next year’s elections if rules were democratic. Meanwhile, Zimbabwe’s southern African neighbors, who for so long kept the country from being completely isolated, now advise Mugabe, 27 years in power- not to run again and to open dialog with the opposition to negotiate a more peaceful transition.

To such end, they rely on the support of the 83-year-old leader’s supporters who have no wish to contest for the presidency of a bankrupt country. Mugabe however tried to postpone the 2010 elections possibly hoping to cut a deal that would allow him to run one more time with the promise to resign halfway during his term. A deal that is likely to fall through since no one believes Mugabe would keep his word.

Just recently, he hired 3,000 Angolan mercenaries to look after his security. In other words, even confronted with mounting dissidence and opposition, Mugabe seems set to fight to the end.

Congo

Refusing to concede his defeat to Joseph Kabila in last year’s presidential elections, considered fair by international observers, Jean Pierre Bemba deployed his armed forces against the new government, an option that risks rekindling the civil war that shook the country for many years before these elections were held.

Troops loyal to the government-elect and UN forces deflected Bemba’s raids against the capital Kinshasa. Now, after taking refuge in the Portuguese embassy and with an arrest warrant issued against him, Bemba is waiting for a safe-conduct to travel to Portugal, allegedly to treat his health.

Bill establishing Private Property approved in China

China upheld market incentives policies for more than 25 years and achieved record-breaking economic growth rates. Now China’s National People’s Congress approved on 16 March the first law explicitly protecting private property. The bill received a favorable vote from 2,799 delegates, against 57 nays and 37 abstentions.

The bill had been on the agenda since last year but took so long to be voted because of the opposition posed by more left-leaning intellectuals and members of the Communist party. Its supporters however see the new law as a means to building the legal framework required to protect the goods acquired by the urban middle class and small and medium private entrepreneurs.

Privatization of homes had already been implemented in the 1990’s, yet maintaining the collective property of the land on which the properties were built.

Discussed since 2002, the bill’s last draft was presented publicly, while the opposition was pressured to silence any form of protest. Many academics told the press they suffered reprisals from their universities. Caijing magazine, which defied the veto of the Department of Propaganda and published a cover story on the subject, had its distribution interrupted and was obliged to reprint the whole edition without the article in question.

Throughout its 247 articles spread over 40 pages, the law establishes that "all type of property is protected by law and no one can violate against it". According to the official version, one of the law’s objectives is to protect the private sector, responsible for nearly half the country’s wealth. The other is to put an end to the frequent and polemic expropriations in the countryside, a dangerous instability factor for the country.

In the countryside, property is collective and the State cedes the land to peasants on a usufruct basis for a period extending up to 70 years. The system will be upheld in the new regulation because, according to the government, the rural area is still unprepared for land privatization given the absence of a social security system. Land may be expropriated "for reasons of public interest", says the new text, which nevertheless will assure the payment of "indemnities for the land, subsidies for realocation, compensation for the houses, equipment and crops". Furthermore, the law bans "the transformation of land intended for agriculture into housing developments", in order to curtail the occasional excesses committed by the not always honest local authorities.

Besides this historic bill, the 10th session of the National People’s Congress passed a unified taxation bill, increasing taxes levied on foreign companies to 25 percent, the same as for Chinese companies. The delegates also approved the 2007 budget, which establishes a 17.8-percent increase in military spending, an initiative seen with reservation by the United States. Read more at www.10thnpc.org.cn, www.10thnpc.org.cn and www.economist.com.

Elections in East Timor

East Timorese are looking forward to the first round of the elections, though four of the eight candidates declared that there are several attempts in course to influence the electoral process. These are the second presidential elections since the country became independent from Indonesia in 2002, when the Timorese resistance principal leader, Xanana Gusmão, was elected.

Independent candidate João Viegas Carrascalão, Fernando “Lasama” de Araújo of the opposition Democratic Party, Lucia Lobato of the Social Democratic Party and Francisco Xavier do Amaral of the Timorese Social Democratic Association, all claimed in a written document that the official candidate, Francisco Guterres, president of the Independent East Timor Revolutionary Front (Fretilin), received special treatment from the election’s observers. They also claim that they were threatened and intimidated.

Apart from them, the remaining candidates are the incumbent Prime Minister and Nobel Prize winner José Ramos-Horta, Socialist Avelino Coelho and independent Manuel Tilman.

Conventional wisdom has it that the real contest is between Ramos-Horta, supported by Xanana Gusmão, and Francisco Guterres, backed by former prime minister Mari Alkatiri, clearly continuing the political dispute that arose last year. The official result is to be announced in fifteen days and, if no candidate reaches 50% plus 1 vote, there will be a second round on 8 May. See Periscope nº 4 and 5 and read more).

World Bank’s fund for the reduction of CO2 emissions renewed

The governments of Ireland and Spain, the Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture, company Zero Emissions Carbon Trust and the World Bank started discussions toward the development of the second phase of the BioCarbon fund. The first phase was launched in 2004, and involved the sum of US$ 53.8 million.

The fund is a public-private partnership that extends financing to projects designed to reduce GHG emissions, created with the objective of opening up the carbon market for forestry and farming activities.

The second phase will fund projects for the restoration of ecosystems that sequester, or conserve, carbon in forests and in agro-ecosystems, with a strong emphasis on poverty reduction and socio-economic development (improvement in the rural way of life) in developing countries and in transition economies. The projects will be developed so as to benefit local communities directly or indirectly.

This phase will have two windows for the submission of projects. The first will focus on eligible certificates under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) for forestry and reforesting, or under the Kyoto Protocol Joint Implementation. The second will seek to funnel resources into activities such as forest restoration and conservation and agricultural stewardship in developing countries since these actions, particularly deforestation, are responsible for approximately 20 percent of the annual emission of GHGs. This market segment is still little developed, with a 1-percent market share due chiefly to the rules set for the trading of forest and agricultural credits at the CDM and to the exclusion of such credits in the first phase of the European Union’s emissions trading scheme. Read more.