The situation in the PMD is still undecided. In the month of March, the party was divided between those who defended an independent candidate to run in the presidential election, those who argued in favor of supporting Lula’s candidacy and a third current arguing that the party should have no candidate.

The situation in the PMD is still undecided. In the month of March, the party was divided between those who defended an independent candidate to run in the presidential election, those who argued in favor of supporting Lula’s candidacy and a third current arguing that the party should have no candidate.

A party primary gave a majority to the candidacy of former governor of Rio de Janeiro, Anthony Garotinho. Still some sectors of the PMDB kept defending other alternatives. More recently, Itamar Franco, a former president of the Republic, launched his name as the party’s potential presidential nominee. In a nutshell, anything can happen.

While Garotinho’s performance in the opinion polls confirms him as a viable candidate (according to Datafolha and CNT/Sensus surveys he was the only candidate to show some growth), the candidate is starting to get a feel that the obstacles in his way to obtain his party’s nomination are threatening to become insurmountable

The electoral dynamic determined by the Federal Supreme Court (STF), by maintaining the requirement for the so-called verticalization of alliances (presidential coalitions forcefully determine state and local coalitions), prompts most PMBD supporters not to work in favor of a self-candidacy and, thereby, remain free to define regional candidacies with several different parties.

Good results from the polls, together with the skillful politics that led him to defeat the governor of Rio Grande do Sul, Germano Rigotto, gave Garotinho the certainty that he would be chosen as the party’s presidential candidate. Nevertheless, on the day before the PMBD National Board meeting held in Brasilia in the first week of April, he was surprised by former governor of São Paulo, Orestes Quércia, who launched ex-president Itamar Franco as the party’s candidate to succeed Lula.

The former governor of Rio de Janeiro is holding on to his candidacy and seems truly confident in his chances of winning. He believes that Geraldo Alckmin’s candidacy will not take off and is also betting that the Lula campaign will lose steam.

The pro-government wing headed by the president of the Senate, Renan Calheiros, and by senator José Sarney, advocate that the party should not have its own candidate, among other reasons, to have more freedom in state coalitions. According to poll results, should the PMDB give up its own candidacy, the election could be defined in the first round, in which case the Workers’ Party would win.