After several months trying to hatch a candidacy capable of challenging President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at the presidential elections due on October 1 this year, the opposition was taken by surprise in April with the result of electoral polls, which ratify a social and political polarization between the PT PSDB candidates.

After several months trying to hatch a candidacy capable of challenging President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at the presidential elections due on October 1 this year, the opposition was taken by surprise in April with the result of electoral polls, which ratify a social and political polarization between the Workers’ Party (PT) and the Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB) candidates. Polls also show that Lula has held his more popular constituency and is starting to recover the support of middle-class sectors of the population.

The electoral scenario, therefore, is still marked by the confrontation between the Workers’ Party candidate and the PSDB neoliberal forces, presently represented by former governor of the state of São Paulo, the candidate Geraldo Alckmin, whose party ruled the country from 1995 to 2002 and now intends to retake the federal government.

While the neoliberal opposition is determined to circumscribe the electoral debate to a framework of corruption, what is in fact at stake is how the population will assess the breakthroughs and shortcomings of the Lula administration in contrast to the potential consequences of a return of the neoliberal parties to the federal government.

President Lula’s reelection will have strategic consequences, not less because of the role its foreign policy plays in Latin America. Victory should imply in the strengthening of the leftist forces in the continent and of their demands for an economic, political and cultural integration that will make it possible not only to resist, but also to overcome the imperialist domination over Latin America.

By the same token, the effects of a victory of the neoliberal opposition would be felt throughout Latin America. Brazil would re-establish preferred relations with the US, promoting thereby the isolation of countries like Venezuela and Bolivia, and resurrecting the stillborn Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA).

In a survey conducted by Instituto CNT/Sensus released on April 11, Lula had 37.5% of voting intentions against 20.6% of the PSDB candidate, Geraldo Alckmin. In third was Anthony Garotinho of the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB) with 15% of the intentions. This result is similar to the one obtained in a survey by Instituto Datafolha released on April 7, in which Lula holds the lead with 40%, followed by Geraldo Alckmin and Garotinho with, respectively, 20% and 15% of the intentions.

Still according to the Datafolha survey, Senator Heloisa Helena of the Socialism and Freedom Party (P-Sol) appears with 5% of the votes; Federal Representative Roberto Freire of the Popular Socialist Party (PPS) and Senator Cristovam Buarque of the Democratic Labor Party (PDT) grabbed 1% of the electorate’s preference. The three last candidates supported Lula in the 2002 elections, and at that time both Heloisa Helena and Cristovam Buarque were affiliated to the PT.

These opinion poll results were made public after the fall of Economy Minister Antonio Palocci under charges of violating the bank secrecy of caretaker Francenildo Costa, who had accused the minister of frequenting a mansion in Brasilia used by lobbyists as a meeting place.

Attacks against Minister Palocci also included accusations regarding his conduct as mayor of the city of Ribeirão Preto, in the state of São Paulo, and activities led by former advisors.

The neoliberal opposition worked for the resignation of the Economy Minister and tried to use his demise to undermine the Lula administration. Yet his fall might produce the opposite of what was intended since former minister Antonio Palocci was strongly identified with more conservative policies by a wide sector of the left supporting Lula’s government. Thus, even from an electoral standpoint, his replacement by Guido Mantega reinvigorates the government by weakening the monetarist orthodoxy.

True, for several consecutive months the then minister Antonio Palocci had been losing power inside the government. By late 2005, when the government began to accelerate the pace of investments and a proposal advocating a “zero nominal deficit” was shelved, the neoliberal opposition started to intensify its attacks against the minister, who had till then received from the opposition a distinctive treatment from that bestowed upon the rest of the government.

In less than one month, the opposition and sectors of the media had adopted the same expedient already tested with other Lula administration ministers and Workers’ Party leaders the against the minister.

But, contrary to what the neoliberal opposition envisaged, the blow caused by Palocci’s resignation was not strong enough to restart the siege on the Lula government and the PT, or to boost Alckmin’s candidacy.

The truth is that, so far at least, Alckmin’s candidacy has not managed to take off, a situation which is already beginning to nurture rumors of his replacement as presidential candidate (in which case José Serra, at present running for governor of the state of São Paulo, would be nominated) and of his losing his place in the race to the PMDB candidate.

The opposition, nevertheless, persists in its strategy of accusing the Lula administration of being involved with corruption. To achieve such an objective, they find shelter also in a charge brought by the Republic’s Attorney-General against those allegedly involved in a scheme to buy votes, also being investigated by the so-called Postal Service Congress Investigative Committee (CPI). The fact is that the document released by the Attorney-General states that the scheme was launched in 1998, during the Minas Gerais gubernatorial reelection campaign of today senator and until not long ago national president of the PSDB, Eduardo Azeredo.

The report by the Federal Prosecutor’s Office now goes to the Federal Supreme Court, which will decide whether it accepts the charges brought forth by Attorney-General Antonio Fernando de Souza, a process that might drag on for two years to be concluded.
The Federal Prosecutor’s text exempts, however, the President of the Republic of any responsibility. “There is no reference to Lula that might be taken as an element capable of justifying penal action”, declared the head of the Federal Prosecutor’s Office at a press conference.

Even so, Roberto Freire’s PPS has decided to carry on with an impeachment case against Lula. By law, a political party cannot file a civil suit against a president. Therefore, the PPS decided to support any ad hoc initiative taken under the inspiration of civil society entities. The Brazilian Bar Association (OAB), for instance, has scheduled for upcoming May 8 a discussion of the theme at a meeting of its Federal Board, composed of 81 lawyers.

The probability of an impeachment process is virtually nil. The opposition knows that President Lula has retained the support of grass-roots sectors and is recovering the support of middle sectors. His personal performance is rated as excellent and good by 46% of the electorate, whereas his own government has the approval of 37%, according to the Datafolha survey. The onslaughts against Lula and the Workers’ Party promoted by the opposition since 2005 have not proven fatal.

Lula’s popularity among the more popular sectors of the population stems from policies that have ensured, although still falling short of the desired, an increase in the income of the working class, particularly of the minimum wage, a reduction in the cost of the basic food basket in relation to price levels in general, a reduction of poverty, an increase in the number of workers joining the formal labor market and compensatory policies like the Family Allowance.

With regard to the corruption charges, contrary to custom during the Fernando Henrique Cardoso days, all charges made are being investigated by the Lula administration itself, as exemplified by the work of the Federal Police and now by Attorney-General Antônio Fernando de Souza, who was himself appointed by President Lula. According to the Justice Minister, Márcio Thomaz Bastos, “no other administration has worked as thoroughly in combating corruption, which might help a little to explain the perception that corruption is growing”.

Government initiatives in this area earned the approval of the Organization of American States (OAS), last March, for measures adopted to implement the Inter-American Convention against Corruption. In the OAS judgment regarding achievements made by Brazil in enforcing anti-corruption measures stood out efforts made by the current administration to create rules for quarantine periods for former public officials and conflicts of interest, to track the evolution of public agent’s net worth and to criminalize illicit enrichment. A presidential bill to that effect has been sent by President Lula to the National Congress.

The report also underscores the importance of the creation of the Secretariat for the Prevention of Corruption and Strategic Information (SPCI), within the Federal Comptroller’s Office.