InternatiIonal Periscope 28/October – A view of Brazil

The parties composing the power base of the Lula government won the first round of the municipal elections of 2008, held last October 5. Analyzing each party separately, the Workers’ Party (PT) had the best relative performance.

However, even as it celebrates the results, the PT is engaged in solving problems that might hamper its performance in the second round of 2008, a victory in the presidential elections of 2010 and the Party’s medium- and long-term role.

In the first round of 2008, the front-runner in number of local governments won was the PMDB, with 1,195; the runner-up was the PSDB, with 783; the PT won 548 municipal governments.

In the previous municipal elections, the number of PT mayors was the following: 411 (2004), 187 (2000), 116 (1996), 54 (1992), 37 (1988) and 2 (1988).

In absolute numbers of municipal governments, the parties that grew the most, in relation to 2004, were the PMDB, with 138 additional local governments; the PT, with 137 additional municipalities; and the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB), with another 133 cities. The PSDB, in turn, lost 88 municipal governments; and the DEM – also in the rightwing opposition– lost 294 municipalities.

If we consider the results in percentage, the PT grew by 33%, surpassed by the PCdoB (with 300%, which grew from 10 to 40 municipal governments), by the PSB (76%, rising from 176 to 309 city halls) and by the PV (the Green Party, winning 38% of the votes, with 77 municipal governments, up from 56).

Yet, the total number of local governments is a partial indicator, as among Brazil’s 5,528 municipalities there are cities of different sizes.

Taking into consideration the cities’ demographics, we will see that in 2008 the PT won elections in 277 cities with fewer than 10 thousand inhabitants (as compared with 210 in 2004 and 77 in 2000); we won in 121 cities in the 10,000–20,000 inhabitants range (against 76 in 2004 and 28 in 2000); we won in 82 cities between 20 and 50 thousand (against 58 in 2004 and 31 in 2008); we won in 45 cities with 50 to 150 thousand inhabitants (against 36 in 2004 and 26 in 2000); and we won in 23 cities above 150,000 inhabitants (against 22 in 2004 and 25 in 2000).

Considering only total electoral votes, we will see that in 2008, the PT obtained 16,486,025 votes (16.6%). This meant a breakthrough in relation to the 2000 municipal elections (when we obtained 11,938,734 and 14.1%, respectively) and a slight decrease in relation to 2004 (when we got 16,326,047 and 17.2%, respectively).

This result puts us in the second place, trailing behind the PMDB (18,422,732 and 18.6%) and ahead of the PSDB (14,454,949 and 14.6%). It is important to notice that the PSDB was the most voted party in the municipal elections of 1996 and 2000, while the PT was the most voted party in the 2004 elections.

The percentage decrease of the PT, in relation to the result obtained in 2004, is probably related to the fact that in 2008 the Party has practiced a policy of alliances that led it to not launch candidates in highly populated cities (Belo Horizonte, Goiânia, Campinas, São Luís, Duque de Caxias, João Pessoa, Cuiabá, Aracajú, São João do Meriti, Campos), that added together have approximately 5,464,000 voters.

This is tantamount to saying that the PT widened by 13% the number of elected councilmen/women (up from 3,679 in 2004 to 4,166 in 2008, from 7.1% to 8%), yet reduced the percentage number of votes obtained (from 10.7% to 10.3%). That is one of the reasons why it has become necessary to analyze the cost/benefit relation of the electoral coalitions set up countrywide. The PSB grew the most in terms of councilmen/women elected (with 1,124 new parliamentarians), followed by the PRB (775 new city council members).

As we have seen thus far, the PT ranks third in total number of city governments and second in total number of votes. But it is the Party with the best performance in the 79 largest Brazilian cities (capital cities and/or cities with 200,000-plus voters).

In those 79, the PT has elected 13 mayors in the first round and is running a second-round runoff election in another 15 cities. That is, the PT could come to govern 28 of the 79 largest cities in Brazil. In second, tied, are the PMDB and the PSDB: each party elected 9 mayors in the first round and is racing in the second round in 11 cities. That is, one of them could come to govern 20 of the largest Brazilian cities.

The result of the runoffs (especially in the capital cities) may consolidate the result of the first round in two senses: a victory of the government and a victory of the PT. But it may also allow the opposition to recover the ground lost, especially the DEM (which fell from 11.8% of the votes in 2004 to 9.4% of the votes in 2008) and the PSDB (which fell from 16.5% of votes in 2004 to 14.6% of the ballots in 2008).

It is worth mentioning that the DEM’s performance was not even worse solely because of the votes obtained by Kassab in São Paulo, approximately 23% of the Democrats’ total votes across Brazil. The DEM obtained this year 9,291,086 votes or 9.4% of the total (against 12,973,544 and 15.4% in 2000 and 11,238,408 and 11.8% in 2004).

In the second round, due on 26 October, 26,843,804 voters will return to the polls in 29 cities, 11 of which are capital cities.

Capital cities where a second-round runoff election is to be held are Manaus (AM), Macapá (AP), Salvador (BA), São Luís (MA), Belo Horizonte (MG), Cuiabá (MT), Belém (PA), Rio de Janeiro (RJ), Porto Alegre (RS), Florianópolis (SC) and São Paulo (SP).

The remaining 18 cities where a second ballot will be held are Vila Velha (ES), Anápolis (GO), Contagem (MG), Juiz de Fora (MG), Montes Claros (MG), Campina Grande (PB), Londrina (PR), Ponta Grossa (PR), Petrópolis (RJ), Canoas (RS), Pelotas (RS), Joinville (SC), Bauru (SP), Guarulhos (SP), Mauá (SP), Santo André (SP), São Bernardo do Campo (SP) and São José do Rio Preto (SP).

In the country’s three most populated states, runoff elections will be held in the capital cities of São Paulo (SP), Belo Horizonte (BH) and Rio de Janeiro (RJ).

In São Paulo, PT candidate Marta Suplicy will face Gilberto Kassab (DEM and backed by the PMDB), who is supported by Governor José Serra’s PSDB.

In Rio de Janeiro, candidate Eduardo Paes (today in the PMDB, but yesterday a member of the PSDB’s ‘shock troops’) will face Fernando Gabeira of the PV (who is being backed by Globo TV Network and is a visceral enemy of the PT).
In Belo Horizonte, candidate Márcio Lacerda (today in the PSB and supported by the PT, though actually the candidate of PSDB Governor Aécio Neves) will will face Leonardo Quintão (of the PMDB).

The PT is also running runoff elections against the PMDB in two other capital cities: Salvador and Porto Alegre.
Thus, the second round will be a triple measuring of strength: between the government and the opposition; within the government coalition, between the PT and the PMDB; and within the opposition, between Serra and Aécio.

Concerning the contest inside the PSDB, Serra took the lead. He took his São Paulo city mayoral candidate (Gilberto Kassab, of the DEM) to the second round, in the first place, superseding the PT and his own PSDB party’s official candidate (Geraldo Alckmin).

Aécio Neves, however, had bitter defeats against the PT in Minas Gerais state hinterland; and came out weakened from the election in that state’s capital city, Belo Horizonte, as his candidate Márcio Lacerda, in spite of the support by Mayor Pimentel of the PT and by the PSDB governor, failed to win in the first round.

As for the government’s power base, whatever the results of the second round, there was a strengthening of the PMDB, the PSB and the PCdoB. The PcdoB is now governing a state capital (Aracaju) and might govern another one (São Luís). At the same time, there is a weakening of Ciro Gomes, whose candidate lost the elections in Fortaleza, the capital of Ceará State, his political stronghold.

As regards the government as a whole, once again it was proven that the capacity to transfer votes by Lula does exist, is in fact strong, and yet does not automatically translate into votes to the PT or the government coalition. In fact, the country’s current positive environment, which is expressed by Lula’s 80 percent approval rate, impacted positively on candidates running for reelection and those who contested with the support of mayors exhibiting good approval rates.

Of the 7 capital cities it runs today, the PT won in six in the very first round of the 2008 elections. The exception is Belo Horizonte, where the local PT gave up having its own candidate and made a de facto coalition with the PSDB, in the opposite direction of the Workers’ Party national alliance of policies, having to put up with a political defeat in the first round and risking a bitter electoral defeat in the second round. Moreover, of the 411 mayors elected in 2004, the PT was reelected in 230 cities, with a 56-percent reelection rate (followed by the PSB with a 45.5-percent rate and the PMDB with 43.8%).

The main contest in the second round is undoubtedly the one for the capital of the state of São Paulo. There the PT will have a tough election, since the right has demonstrated it is capable of producing and effectively manipulating the PT’s rejection level.

It is important to differentiate the rightwing anti-PT sentiment, quite evident in São Paulo, but also present in other urban centers and in states like Paraná, Santa Catarina and Mato Grosso do Sul, from the appearance of a constituency to the left of the PT, the case of Porto Alegre, where the votes obtained separately by the PCdoB and the PSOL surpassed the 20-percent-of-the-votes barrier.

In the first case, the PT will have to analyze the social base, the discourse and the mechanisms of reproduction of a reactionary right that is militating against us. Moreover, we will have to study the regional determinants of this anti-PT militant vote, which manifests itself strongly in the Southeast and southern (with the notable exception of Rio Grande do Sul, where the PT obtained an excellent result) and centre-western areas, while in the Northeast the PT is increasingly consolidating itself.

In the second case, the PT will have to discuss how to create mechanisms enabling the resolution of disputes within the left to avert political and electoral disasters as that which occurred in the city of Rio de Janeiro.

It is worth mentioning that overall the non-PT left that grew in these elections is part of the government coalition. The ultra left (PCB, PCO) and the PSOL, with some rare exceptions, had a puny performance.

Lastly, a critical question: the international crisis has had no influence on the outcome of the first-round elections. As the crisis worsens and its first effects are felt in the country, how will it impact (and to what extent and in whose favor?) on the results of the second round?