International Periscope 27/September – A view of Brazil

The electoral campaign proceeds, with a view to electing mayors and councilmen/women in every Brazilian municipality. The picture is still unclear, though opinion polls done in the month of August pointed to, at least in the big cities, a favoritism of the candidacies that support the Lula government.

In parallel with the electoral campaign, some themes are gaining space in the media. Among them, we highlight the reach of the Amnesty Law; the demarcation of the Raposa Serra do Sol; the fate of the Brazilian oil reserves; the denunciations that several authorities, among them the Chief Justice of the Supreme Federal Court, had their phones tapped; and the interest rate policy.

Amnesty
On August 27, the eve of yet another anniversary of the Amnesty Law promulgated still during the Brazilian military dictatorship, a press release by the National Executive Committee of the Workers’ Party (PT) was issued condemning “the smear attacks made by conservative and anti-democratic sectors against our brothers Paulo Vanucchi and Tarso Genro”, respectively responsible for the areas of Human Rights and Justice of the Lula administration.

The press release of the PT National Executive Committee further states that “the 1979 Amnesty Law does not benefit those who committed crimes of torture, nor does it preclude public debate, the quest for truth and Justice”.

A few days earlier, ex-president José Sarney (PMDB) declared in a press interview that, “punishment against the tortures of the dictatorship should be forgotten”.

The debate over the reach of the Amnesty Law is bound to proceed, but a practical outcome for the situation of the torturers, among other agents of the State who committed crimes during the dictatorship, depends on what Justice shall decide regarding the many lawsuits filed by victims and the relatives of those who were tortured, disappeared or were murdered by the State, during the civil-military dictatorship initiated in Brazil in 1964.

Indigenous peoples
Also on August 27, the Supreme Federal Court started voting the petition filed by large landholders against the continuous demarcation of the Indian reservation known as Raposa Serra do Sol.

The continuous demarcation is based on anthropological studies and opinions, and is the last step of a process that had its start still in the government of Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB). It is now incumbent upon the Lula government to take the definitive step and adopt measures to remove all non-Indians from the reservation’s territory.

Most of the non-Indians, who are entitled to an indemnity, have already left the reservation. Resistance came from the big farmers (rice-growers), some of whom are illegally farming on public lands. In their resistance, they have had the support of the governor of the state of Roraima and of retired (and some active-duty) officers of the Brazilian armed forces, one of them reported to have trained paramilitary forces to stand up to the Federal Police.

The vote at the Federal Supreme Court started with a victory for the Indians. The vote of the Judge Rapporteur was in favor of a continuous demarcation of the Indigenous lands. In light of that, another justice –seemingly siding with the rice-growers’ claims— requested an adjournment to further examine the process.

Although there is no legal obligation, the case is expected to be judged again still in September. In the state of Roraima, located in the north of Brazil, the rice-growers and their allies have taken to provoking Indians who are favorable to the demarcation. Only the presence of Federal Police troops keeps the confrontation from escalating into a major conflict.

Oil
Petrobras surveys have led to the discovery of huge oil reserves off the coast of Brazil, located in very deep waters. Despite the immense technological and operational challenges involved, the new oil reserves discovered repositioned Brazil among the producing countries and prompted the government to debate how best to deal with the ensuing wealth.

Although no decision has been made regarding the model for the exploration of these reserves, the Lula government has openly defended a change in the current regulatory frameworks, inherited from the Fernando Henrique Cardoso administration, which benefit private investors to the detriment of public, state and the Union’s interests.

One of the alternatives under study is the creation of a Fund, similar to the one that exists in Norway. Another alternative is to capitalize Petrobras, increasing the state-owned share of the company’s profits.

Somewhat taken by surprise by the measures, the right –and its spokespeople– has realized the discovery’s potential and the impact the reserves will have on the country’s development, yet is more concerned with the “electoral use” of the reserves than in facing the debate regarding the management of such wealth for the benefit of the majority of the population; as proposed in some speeches made by President Lula, who advocates using the revenues derived from the reserves in education and anti-poverty programs.

Phone tappings
After the handcuffs, phone tapping is under the spotlight. For several weeks now, the favorite subject of the weeklies and the daily press has been the handcuffs used by the Federal Police to arrest some politicians and big entrepreneurs.

Now attentions have shifted to illegal phone taps involving authorities, among them the Federal Supreme Court’s Chief Justice. Sectors of the opposition are charging Abin (Brazil’s national intelligence agency) and the Federal Police, and even claiming a crime of responsibility on the part of the president of the Republic. Investigations have started and may conclude by pointing in other directions: a set-up against the government, in an attempt to create an artificial crisis; a war between factions inside the police forces; or espionage in connection with corporate interests and attempts of economic blackmail.

Interest rates
While politics follows its course, every now and then making it to the police pages of the press, the country keeps on saving huge amounts to pay off the public debt.

Between January and July of 2008 alone, the Brazilian public sector (that is, the Union, states, municipalities and state-owned companies) amassed and spent R$ 98.225 billion to pay interest on the country’s debt.

The press announced this was a record amount, surpassing by 23.4% the R$ 79.578 billion saved between January and July of 2007. The “sum corresponds to 6.01% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP)”. “Still, the effort was insufficient to pay all the interest accrued in the January-July period, which was R$ 106.803 billion. The difference (the so-called nominal deficit) was R$ 8.5 billion”.

“With this insufficient primary surplus to cover for interest payments, the overall net debt of the public sector rose from R$ 1.180 trillion at the end of June to R$ 1.192 trillion at the end of July. The debt/GDP ratio, however, fell (from 40.6% to 40.4%) due to the country’s economic growth”.