The outcomes of the German SPD and China’s Communist party congresses, and of the elections in Argentina, Colombia, Guatemala, Cuba, Switzerland, Poland and Ukraine. Honduras’ new borders, the launching of the Bank of the South, and US-Turkey-Iraq relations, another coup in Pakistan, the situation in Haiti and the 2007 Nobel Peace Award are the highlights of this # 19 newsletter.


Cristina Kirchner won the presidential elections in Argentina
Results of departmental and municipal elections in Colombia
Colom to be new president of Guatemala
Honduras receives sovereignty of Caribbean Islands and changes its borders
Municipal elections held in Cuba
Launching of the Bank of the South
Haiti – UN renews permanence of MINUSTAH in the country
USA versus Iran
Congress of German SPD reelects board and distances itself from the CDU
Xenophobic far right advances in Switzerland
Change of government in Poland
Ukrainian voters strengthen ties with the European Union
Turkey. Relations with Iraq worsen as do ill feelings toward the United States
Pakistan – Benazir Bhutto’s return and yet another coup
Congress of the Communist Party of China approves development strategy for next years
Al Gore and UN IPCC awarded the 2007 Nobel Peace prize

Cristina Kirchner won the presidential elections in Argentina

With 45% of the votes cast on October 28, Cristina Kirchner was acclaimed winner in the first round of the Argentinean presidential elections in representation of one of the three same-party slates of the Peronist Justicialist Party (PJ). The runner-up was Elisa Carrió for the Alliance for a Republic of Equals party, the ARI, with 23 percent of the votes.

The ARI is a progressive dissidence of the Radical Civic Union (UCR) that took place during the 2001 crisis in Argentina, when President Fernando de la Rua, elected by the UCR, eventually resigned.

In third came former economy minister of the Duhalde and, for some time, the Nestor Kirchner administrations, Roberto Lavagna, who obtained 17% of the votes. Lavagna ran in a slate negotiated with the UCR, despite the support given by a dissident group of the same party to Cristina Kirchner, with the nomination of her vice-president.

Everything seems to indicate that, once his presidential term is over, Nestor Kirchner will dedicate his time to the organization of a political party that brings together the left and center-left of the Peronism under his leadership.

In addition to the victory of the presidential candidate he supported, Nestor Kirchner is also drawing on the positive results reaped in the parliamentary elections. The new president will have a comfortable majority in the Senate, 44 of the 72 seats, and in the Chamber, 153 of 257 seats. The ARI will have the largest opposition representation, with 35 deputies. Most of the governors and mayors elected throughout 2007 will also be their allies.

Duhalde is expected to become the leader of the Justicialism’s right wing, as in the presidential elections he allied with Macri, Buenos Aires’ recently elected mayor, in support of presidential candidate Jose Lopez Murphy, who, nonetheless, only received 1.5% of the votes.

Regardless of the speculations surrounding the future of Argentinean politics, the result of these elections strengthened the continent’s progressive trend and once again defused attempts by the big press to influence the result in favor of the right. Read more at: http://www.pagina12.com.ar/ and http://www.ipsnoticias.net/.

Results of departmental and municipal elections in Colombia

On the same date of the Argentinean presidential elections there also occurred, in Colombia, elections to choose 1,097 mayors, 32 department (equivalent to Brazilian state) governors and 418 department legislators.

The result was important for the left. Firstly because, through the Alternative Democratic Pole (PDA), it broadened its overall voting index. Secondly because its mayoral candidate running for Bogotá, Samuel Moreno, obtained the best electoral result in the party’s history, with 43.5% of the votes, and will succeed Lucho Garzón, who also belongs to the Pole and whose administration was rated as positive.

In the Department of Nariño, the PDA also elected former leader of guerrilla group M-19 and incumbent senator Antonio Navarro Wolf, a candidate running for the party’s presidential nomination who, however, withdrew his candidacy in favor of Carlos Gaviria, who in turn is the current party president. In the departments of Atlántico and Santander, the PDA allied with the winning candidates of the Liberal Party, which also opposes the Uribe government.

Parties openly supporting President Uribe elected 363 mayors and 12 governors. The Liberal Party, which came in third in the last presidential elections, elected 206 mayors and six governors.

All other candidates were elected by smaller parties or were independent candidacies, with no party.

President Álvaro Uribe was dealt a severe blow and began to talk about modifying yet again the Constitution in order to run for a third consecutive term, something “justifiable in face of a catastrophe”, according to his statements. Read more at Vote Bien, a web site with the results for the October 28 polls and related articles, Colombia’s left wins in capital, but right holds sway elsewhere in nationwide votes, Paramilitares colombianos lanzan partido político, Colombia’s Uribe considers seeking a 3rd term to avert catastrophe, the official page of the Alternative Democratic Pole and the official web page of the National Electoral Council of Colombia.

Colom to be new president of Guatemala

In the second round runoff presidential elections held in Guatemala on November 4 the winner was the Social Democrat of the National Unity of Hope (UNE), Alvaro Colom, with 53% of the votes, in a contest against the candidate of the far right of the “Patriotic Party”, retired general Otto Perez Molina.

Turnout on election day was low, around 50% of those enrolled, in contrast with a slightly higher rate, approximately 60 percent, in the first round.

While Molina campaigned for his “firm fist” to deal with the country’s high crime and violence rates, Colom argued that Guatemala was not in need of more military in the government.

Colom will rely on a considerable parliamentary support for the most part, yet will not have enough votes to pass any kind of bill and will have to negotiate to obtain an absolute majority of votes if, for example, he wishes to change the Constitution.

It still remains to be seen whether he will have the political will and the necessary skills to approve measures designed to raise the living standards of, at least, the poorest among the population, as he pledged to, as well as reducing crime and violence without compromising due respect for human rights. Read more in Final cerrado para la segunda vuelta en Guatemala.

Honduras receives sovereignty of Caribbean Islands and changes its borders

The International Court of Justice at The Hague granted Honduras, early in October, sovereignty of four islands in the Caribbean Sea (Bobel, South, Savanna and Port Royal), also claimed by Nicaragua.

Moreover, the International Court of Justice established a new borderline between the two countries, disregarding claims by both parties to redefine their maritime borders. According to Honduras, the border was located at parallel 15 while, according to Nicaragua, at parallel 17. The line is located, in the judgment of the Court, along the bisector dividing both coastal lines.

Presidents Manuel Zelaya of Honduras and Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua promised to accept the decision ruled by The Hague.

Municipal elections held in Cuba

Cuba’s electoral system begins in the barrios (city districts), where citizens nominate delegates to the People’s Power, whose names are submitted to a vote. It is building on that base that the Municipal Councils of Cuba are constituted.

On October 21, more than eight million Cubans took to the polls to elect, by means of a secret, direct vote, the 15,326 members of the 169 People’s Power assemblies. For the election 37,328 candidates were presented, who need not belong to any organization or party. The only requirement is their having been nominated by a Cuban citizen.

Once the electoral process is over, any citizen may observe the counting of the ballots cast in the boxes. Candidates who did not attain an absolute majority of votes took part in a second round involving those most voted, held on October 28.

Those elected have a 30-month term. Delegates elected at a municipal level do not receive any form of remuneration and may have their terms annulled at any moment if the citizens consider they are being misrepresented.

The right to vote and to nominate delegates in accordance to the Cuban legislation is granted to all citizens aged 16-plus, “mentally capable” and with no penal sanctions.

Launching of the Bank of the South

Convened in Brasília in early October, the ministers of economy and finance of Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, Uruguay, Paraguay, Ecuador and Bolivia reached a compromise regarding the founding charter of the Bank of the South.

The third of November was the date agreed upon for the signing of the document in a ceremony held in the capital of Venezuela, Caracas, where the institution is to be headquartered. The bank will also have local offices in Buenos Aires and Rio de Janeiro.

Still pending definition are the bank’s capital and each country’s stakes in the new institution, yet what has already been settled is that, initially, access to funds will only be allowed to the twelve countries that will make up the Unasul, the former South-American Community of Nations: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, Suriname and Venezuela.

Haiti – UN renews permanence of MINUSTAH in the country

The United Nations Security Council renewed on October 15 the mandate of the MINUSTAH (United Nations Stabilization Mission in Haiti) for another year, broadening its reach to include the fight against armament and drug trafficking.

The extended mission mandate, which is militarily led by Brazil, was granted upon a request from Haiti’s Prime Minister, Jacques Edouard Alexis.

Last September, Brazilian defense minister Nelson Jobim visited Haiti, where he came to discuss the possibility of scaling up the number of soldiers in the country –today there are 1,200 troops– in order to work on the reconstruction of the infrastructure of the country, the poorest in the region.

Although the resolution approved makes mention to “significant improvement” in security, the extended mandate is justified on the grounds that “the international arms and drugs trafficking continues to affect stability” in Haiti.

This is the first time a Minustah mandate is renewed for one year. Until then it was being renewed every six or eight months, despite Brazil’s requests for longer renewals. China, which has power of veto at the Security Council, opposed the mission because Haiti recognizes the independence of Taiwan, labeled by Beijing as a rebel province.

The text approved adopted a recommendation by the UN Secretary-General, Ban Ki-moon, to reduce the Minustah contingent by 140 men to 7,060 soldiers.

Infantry will be reduced, while the mission’s police force will be increased to 2,091 men. According to the resolution, emphasis must be placed on the border, Haiti’s long coastline, with its unprotected harbors and clandestine airstrips.

USA versus Iran

Iran is set to become the greatest challenge to the United States foreign policy. The policies designed by the Bush administration focused on President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad have put both countries on a collision course. Perhaps not even the likely retirement of George W. Bush’s Neocons after the upcoming elections will suffice to avert a war.

Today’s debate in the US on the situation in Iran is based on false assumptions, which contributes to further separate the two countries, stimulating the United States toward confrontation.

Iran will not promote any changes in its political system so soon. Its foreign policy is coherent and points to pursuing leadership in the region, while the uranium-enrichment program does not necessarily mean that a nuclear bomb is being built. The pressure being exerted on the country and the pursuit to isolate it in the Middle East have had precisely the opposite effect, that of prompting Iran to undermine US efforts for the region’s stability.

However and in spite of the differences, there were moments during which the two countries engaged in successful cooperation, as in 2001 with the defeat of the Taliban and the creation of the new government of Afghanistan. According to US diplomats involved, the Afghan constitution was only made possible due to the active role of Iran. Or in 2003, before the invasion of Iraq by US troops, when Iran submitted to the US a series of negotiation points that were shrugged off by the Bush administration.

The Neocons of the Republican administration insist on the same point that it is impossible to deal with Iran in diplomatic terms, even more so now with a weaker US on account of the deadlocks created by the country’s engagement on Iraqi territory.

Until late 2005, Vice-President Dick Cheney and his allies believed there would be a change in regime in Iran. Yet after perceiving this would not happen, they started campaigning for military actions against that country with the intention of advancing their plans to redraw the Middle East’s geopolitical map.

According to what Bush’s advisors envisaged, the ousting of Saddam Hussein from power would allow an Iraq under a formal democracy regime to influence the region, attracting other countries to the American orbit. As of the 9/11 attacks, some of Cheney’s allies in the Pentagon defined as their objective to remove every regime in the region which was hostile to the United States or Israel.

The plan masterminded by the Pentagon, according to what General Wesley Clark (just recently retired from his post as commander of one of the US Army divisions) heard from a colleague, was to destabilize seven regimes in five years. It would start with the invasion of Iraq and then was to progressively focus on Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia and Sudan, returning in the end to deal with Iran, according to Clark’s account in his book “Winning Modern Wars”, published in the US in 2003.

In September 2003, Cheney brought David Wurmser to his office as an adviser for Middle East Affairs. This advisor used to present well-crafted ideas about how the fall of Saddam Hussein would help to destabilize the Iranian regime. Wurmser was co-author of the “Clean Break” paper mentioned in the Periscope 17, of last August.

From 2003 to 2005, Wurmser and his fellow Neocons continued denying that the US operations in Iraq had only strengthened the Iranian regime. The end of the belief that the war might have a negative impact on Iran was materialized by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s 2005 electoral victory. Read more.

Inside the Bush administration the strong reaction by Hezbollah to the Israeli attack against Lebanon in 2006 was used to explain the “bad” influence of Iran in the region and how it represents a real threat against US interests. Though the rhetoric used was meant to pressure Iran to give up its nuclear program, the original goal of overthrowing the regime might also have been used to justify military actions. Indeed, George W. Bush even declared that if Iran acquired nuclear weapons, World War III would be initiated. Read more.

As members of the present administration continue to present a host of arguments whereby the United States should not seek a diplomatic solution to the grievances it has with Iran, it is also worrying the position upheld by the best-placed presidential candidates in the pre-electoral race.

When outlining the foreign policy she is to adopt should she win the race to the White House in 2008, Democratic senator and presidential pre-candidate Hillary Clinton left a clear message: “all options must remain on the table” when it comes to dealing with Iran.

The statement, which opens doors for a military action, is of the same tenor of those used by the incumbent president, despite all the critical rhetoric Hillary adopts when referring to the Republican administration. The article that reports the ex- first lady’s policies was published in the November issue of “Foreign Affairs”. Read more.

Building on the repercussion this article generated, Barack Obama, second in the primary polls that will choose the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee and who has sought to differentiate himself from Hillary’s positions, gave a long interview to the New York Times newspaper.

In this interview the senator states that, should he be elected, he will devote himself to “aggressive personal diplomacy” in relation to Iran, by offering economic benefits and the promise not to pursue a “change of regime” provided Tehran stops arming Shia rebel groups in Iraq and cooperates in themes such as nuclear non proliferation. Read more.

With more than 45% of voting intentions among the Democratic Party’s candidates and having raised so far a record US$ 90 million in campaign funds, Hillary is poised to be the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee to the White House.

According to the most recent poll done by Pew Research Center, Hillary Clinton’s lead in the presidential race is not restricted to her own party. If the election were today, she would receive 51% of the votes against 43% of the Republican Party’s main competitor, Rudolph Giuliani. Read more on the 2008 presidential election polls, on the Democratic Party primaries and on campaign fundraising.

In spite of the diplomatic tone employed in the Foreign Affairs article, Hillary’s positions do not conceal that she is the most belligerent among the Democratic presidential candidates. Therefore, the Iranian issue is likely to remain on the political agenda even after the Neocons leave the White House.

Congress of German SPD reelects board and distances itself from the CDU

Convened on October 26 through 28, the congress of Germany’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) ended with the reelection of party president Kurt Beck and of secretary general Hubertus Heil, with 95.5% of the votes.

The 525 official delegates received more than 200 guests, among the 70 foreign organizations coming from 55 countries, who saw the approval of theses proposing a reversal of the country’s liberal reforms and pushing the party further left.

Beck’s reelection had a bitter taste for Franz Müntefering, the party’s ex president and currently a member of Christian Democrat Angela Merkel’s coalition government, for it strengthened the position of the majority of the party toward abandoning the more centrist tendencies adopted ever since the Social Democratic administration of Gerhard Schröder.

Beck’s expectation is that the proposal for increasing benefits to the elderly and retirees will help the party to gain ground in the 2008 regional elections. In an attempt to keep a distance from the reforms outlined in the “Agenda 2010” unveiled by the Schröder government, the party also wants to reduce retirement requisites and supports the creation of a minimum wage for workers on temporary contracts.

Moreover, the Congress debated the adoption of caps for the participation of big investors in the privatization of Deutsche Bahn, the state-owned rail company, although the party is still in favor that some of the reforms be implemented provided some adjustments be made to Agenda 2010.

According to pundits, the Congress’s main outcome was to try to recover the party’s traditional image of fighting for the protection of well-being and social solidarity, standing up against the position adopted over the last years of a “modernizing party” a la UK’s Labour Party Third Way.

The changes in the SPD also represent an attempt to lure voters lost for the recently-created Die Linke, which is being singled out today as Germany’s main opposition party.

With this definition of socially-driven objectives, the SPD Congress signals to a gradual separation from the CDU, the partner in the government coalition, with a view to the 2008 regional elections and the 2009 general elections. Read more on the Congress on the SPD official web page (in English).

Xenophobic far right advances in Switzerland

In the parliamentary elections held in Switzerland last October 21, the Swiss People’s Party (SVP), the country’s far-right party increased the number of seats it held in Parliament from 55 to 62 of the total seats in the Swiss Parliament.

This fact is even more serious if one takes into account that the turnout rate at the poll was one of the highest in the recent history, with approximately 49% of those in good standing to vote. The SVP campaign mainly hinged on the theme of immigration, which was illustrated by some “white sheep” expelling a “black sheep” from out of the Swiss flag.

During the electoral campaign, the right extremists managed to collect some 200,000 signatures for a petition calling for the holding of a referendum to amend the legislation so as to allow the expulsion, clear and simple, of foreigners who commit any crime in the country.

One of the SVP recently elected MPs has already announced that he will draft a new bill whereby the new law will require DNA tests to confirm kinship between foreigners already residing in Switzerland and “alleged relatives” they wish to reunite in the country.

The Greens were also up 7 seats to a total 20, while the Socialist Party, down from 52 to 43 seats, and the Democratic Radical Party, from 36 to 31 seats, were the main losers in the election.

Definition over the composition of the new government is expected to take place in the next cabinet meeting, due on December 3–21. Read more.

Change of government in Poland

Unlike the outcome in Switzerland, in Poland it was the ruling far right that lost the elections. The coalition formed by the Law and Justice party with the Self-Defense and the Polish League of Families split, thus forcing new parliamentary elections, which were held last October 21. As a result, the two last parties failed to meet the required minimum to comply with the 5-percent of national vote minimum threshold rule.

The front-runners were the liberals led by Donald Tusk of the Civic Platform, which is expected to ally with the Peasants’ Party, traditionally linked to the Catholic Church, and win 75% of votes in Parliament.

Defeat of Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the twin brother of the country’s incumbent president Leck Kaczynski, came as a relief to many, as his brothers’ last electoral platform, based on law and order to halt rising crime in the country, ultimately turned out into an all out persecution process against all political adversaries, particularly the members of the Polish Communist Party.

It is hoped that with this result the new government will adopt measures to withdraw the 900 soldiers deployed in the occupation of Iraq, as well as signing the European Union Human Rights Charter and renegotiating the American proposal for setting up missiles in Polish territory, the object of profound contrariety to the Russians. Read more.

Ukrainian voters strengthen ties with the European Union

The interest of a sector of the Ukrainian society in replacing their preferential relations with Russia with closer relations with Western countries, in particular the European Union and the U.S., has always been a sensitive issue.

The attempt to thwart the electoral victory of incumbent president Viktor Yuschenko in 2004 prompted a wave of protests throughout the country –dubbed by the Western press as the “Orange Revolution” owing to the party’s colors–, which culminated with the president’s inauguration.

Last September 30, there were held parliamentary elections, yet their official results were only announced in late October owing to an injunction filed by the Communist Party of Ukraine.

According to the official result, Yuschenko’s party, New Ukraine – People’s Self-Defense won 72 seats, which, added to the 156 seats of ally Yulia Tymoshenco’s Y.T. Bloc, gave the two parties a majority in Parliament, where Tymoshenco is poised to become the new prime minister.

The ruling party of Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich made 175 seats, while the PCU made 27 and former President Vladimir Litvin’s party got only 20seats.

The result is set to spawn measures conducive to a greater approximation between the Ukraine and the European Union, the US and NATO, something unacceptable for Russia’s present administration. Putin had, in connection with the 2004 events in Ukraine, determined measures designed to pressure the Ukrainian government, such as the interruption of natural gas supply. It remains to be seen how he will react this time. Read more in Ukraine leader: accord needed for a stable assembly.

Turkey. Relations with Iraq worsen as do ill feelings toward the United States

On October 17, the Turkish Parliament approved by 507 votes to 19 a motion authorizing the government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to launch a military offensive against Kurdish autonomists, who receive support from Iraq. The justification for the measure were the attacks perpetrated by the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which earlier in the month had caused 47 deaths, among which those of 35 Turkish soldiers, in addition to making several prisoners.

In Washington, President George W. Bush immediately started pressuring for the attack not to occur, for a Turkish invasion of northern Iraq would lead to a confrontation between Ankara and the American troops occupying Iraq since 2003.

There is a precedent of three military operations by Turkish forces inside Iraq. The largest of them, in 1997, involved 200,000 men, which, however, failed to neutralize PKK autonomists engaged in guerrilla operations in the Turkish Kurdistan.

On October 28, some 8,000 soldiers of Turkey’s security forces, protected by heavily armed helicopters, surrounded rural areas in the districts of Oulumur and Nazimiye in Tunceli. Tunceli is situated some 650 km northeast of Hakkari, a bordering region between Turkey and Iraq and a shelter for separatists, where the latest PKK actions took place.

According to the Turkish government, the PKK planned actions in Oulumur that were to coincide with the 84th anniversary of the proclamation of the Turkish Republic, celebrated on October 29.

The Turkish army sent between 100,000 and 150,000 men to the border area, in addition to tanks and heavy artillery, as part of preparations for a huge offensive against PKK positions in Iraqi territory. In an interview to BBC on October 28, Iraq’s foreign relations minister Hoshyar Zebari stated that he considers the present crisis to be very serious and accused Turkey of not seeking a peaceful solution for the situation.

An Iraqi delegation met with the Turkish government in Ankara in the last week of October with the goal of proposing a solution that would prevent the PKK from using its bases in northern Iraq to strike against villages and military targets in Turkey. The proposal included coordinated efforts with Iraq’s defense forces, the Peshmerga (Kurdish forces connected to the Iraqi government) and American units. Turkey declined the offers.

The Turkish press ran reports in which Zebari revealed to officials in Ankara that the PKK had threatened to blow oil pipelines in northern Iraq if Baghdad agreed with the raids by the Turkish troops.

The Iraqi government suspects that the Turkish army might not be able to limit its offensive to actions against the PKK, and might decide to deploy troops beyond the border region and stay in the region on a permanent basis to keep the Kurds from establishing an independent territory in Kirkurk, in the north of Iraq.

Despite Iraq’s worries, the Turkish army continues to prepare for large-scale operations along the border. Still, Turkish General Yasar Buyukanit suggested that nothing would be done before the summit between Prime Minister Erdogan and George W. Bush in Washington, on November 5. For the US, Turkey should abstain from fighting against the PKK on Iraqi soil and should seek an alternative through tripartite arrangements involving Washington and Baghdad.

It is still unclear what will be Washington’s final position on the issue, since the US needs to maintain its close alliance with Turkey in order to secure this country’s support for its war efforts in Iraq. Meanwhile, the Turkish government has been seeking the approval of Iran and Syria for its incursion in northern Iraq based on the fact that both countries would like to see the Kurdish pro independence movement controlled, since there are Kurdish minorities in both countries which total nine million people.

To make matters worse, the US House Foreign Affairs Committee voted a resolution on October 10 qualifying the killings of 1.5 million Armenians by Ottoman Turks in the pre and post World War II period as genocide. With 27 votes in favor and 21 against, the committee passed the motion despite the White House’s opposition, according to which the resolution would harm the country’s interests in the Middle East.

With the crisis in Turkey and the probable clash in Iraq, the likelihood of such a resolution being voted in the plenary of the House was dissipated. Many of the Democratic and Republican representatives who intended to vote in favor of the text have already withdrawn their support and are waiting in silence for guidelines from the White House. Read more.

Pakistan – Benazir Bhutto’s return and yet another coup

After General Pervez Musharraf’s reelection on October 6, upholding the accord brokered by the US, Benazir Bhutto, a former prime minister of Pakistan, was allowed to return from exile.

Musharraf was reelected for a second term of office with a majority of votes –671 of the 684 members of the national parliament and regional assemblies. Yet, the official result was not proclaimed, for the Supreme Court intends to rule on the legality of his candidacy, since he accumulated the presidential office with his duties as the army’s chief commander. Through the state of emergency Musharraf decreed on November 3, he fired for the second time the Supreme Court Chief Justice, his declared adversary.

The general landed in power on October 12, 1999 by means of a coup that deposed Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, adding the new function to his command of the Pakistani army. The then president Rafiq Tarar was allowed to remain in office until 2001, when Musharraf replaced him as head of government. His presidency was formalized in the 2002 general elections.

Former premier Benazir Bhutto, who was in self exile for eight years, returned to Pakistan on October 18 to lead opposition Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) in the parliamentary elections originally scheduled for January, which, however, may now be adjourned for two years, for the forecasts were that Musharraf would lose his present parliamentary majority.

In a reconciliation effort, Musharraf granted amnesty to his historic rival, who was being sued on corruption charges. The validity of the decree, however, is also under analysis by the Supreme Court.

Before Bhutto’s arrival to Pakistan, three plots, probably organized by groups linked to al Qaeda and the Taliban, were uncovered, according to the government of the Sindh Province, the former prime minister’s principal base. Because of that, some 20,000 agents were deployed to guarantee security on the way from the Karachi airport and the venue where the demonstration was to take place.

Nonetheless, the long motorcade that escorted her on the route was the target of two attacks that killed more than 120 people and left more than 200 wounded. As a result of the attacks festivities and demonstrations that had been planned to celebrate the return of the ex prime minister by PPP supporters were canceled.

Seen with good eyes by the White House, Benazir has already declared her support to a military action by the United States in the tumultuous region along the border with Afghanistan, the stronghold of Islamic radicals. Much to the fundamentalists’ dislike, Benazir – herself a Muslim as 97% of Pakistanis – leads a lay party. Recent flirtations with the dictator also contributed to the attacks against Bhutto.

Bhutto’s tragic death could complicate Musharraf’s life, a key figure in the war on terrorism undertaken by the US and an ally of the Americans in this tense region. In the eyes of Washington, Pakistan must be under control, since it already possesses atomic weapons and is considered vital to support American actions in neighboring Afghanistan. Thus, Benazir’s comeback is accompanied with certain enthusiasm by the United States, which is favorable to an alliance between their ally in crisis and the pro Western leader.

Pakistanis in turn are skeptical with regard to the capacity of lay PPP of defeating the Islamic insurgency. With the deportation in September of another former prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, Pakistan lacks heavyweight names to succeed the dictator. Yet thus far it is still uncertain whether Bhutto will ally with or oppose Musharraf in the upcoming elections, which, as a matter of fact, still have not been scheduled. Read more.

Congress of the Communist Party of China approves development strategy for next years

The 17th Congress of the Communist Party of China, held on October 15-22, with the participation of 2,217 delegates, set the priorities of the government for the next five years, when the next Congress will be held.

The line around which state policy will be built in China centered on the term “harmonic society”, coined by President Hu Jintao. This means that questions such as social justice and wealth distribution should receive greater attention, in addition to economic growth. In a tradition started by Mao in 1945, each leader leaves in the Party’s Constitution what he considers his intellectual legacy for the construction of the Chinese form of socialism.

In the case of Hu, the likelihood is that his thoughts will be condensed in the expression “Four Perseverances”, which calls communists to guide themselves by the concepts of scientific development and the building of a harmonic society, to open their minds, to continue with the economic reform process and to work for a society in which all may enjoy a comfortable life. This contribution was included in the tenth paragraph of the Constitution.

The Communist Party of China, the world’s largest political movement, with 73.36 million affiliated members – 6.42 million more than in 2002, the year of the last congress–, defined moreover the new composition of the Politburo’s Standing Committee, the party’s highest rung.

This composition also included some renewals and, as with every other political composition worldwide, acquiesced to regional demands and influential leaderships, such as those of the incumbent president, Hu Jintao, his predecessor Jiang Zemin and the incumbent prime minister, Wen Jiabao.

Among the renewals stand out the elections of Xi Jinping, party secretary in Shanghai, and Li Keqiang, party secretary in the province of Liaoning and ex governor of the Hunan province, the most populous in the country, aged respectively 54 and 52, the youngest among the nine members of the new Politburo Standing Committee. Incumbent vice-president Zeng Qinghong and other political veterans, Luo Gan and Wu Guanzheng, are among the leaders who retired from the Committee.

Jintao’s opening address at the Congress was not much different from that delivered by Zemin on occasion of the opening of the 16th Congress five years ago, defending “the rule of law and the orderly increase of the people’s political participation and elements of the socialist democracy”.

Furthermore, Jintao defended greater transparency and reforms in party voting sessions, initiatives in support of the rural population – which concentrates 57% of the Chinese population – and the development of a social security system.

The change of development pattern proposed in his speech repeats elements of the 11th Five-Year Plan (2006-2010), forecasting an increase in the weight of domestic consumption in GDP growth. Read more at the official page of the 17th Congress of the Communist Party of China and the New York Times special reports series on China.

Al Gore and UN IPCC awarded the 2007 Nobel Peace prize

In 2007, after receiving the Oscar for best documentary for “An Inconvenient Truth”, ex-vice-president of the United States Al Gore was awarded the Peace Nobel for his effort to call attention to the issue of global warming. The award was shared with the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Political pressure for Gore to enter in the Democratic race for the presidential nomination increased dramatically with the prize.

Though Gore maintains the position that he does not intend to run for any office and states that he will just dedicate to the environmental cause, voluntary mobilizations have already started to raise funds for a possible presidential campaign by Bill Clinton’s vice-president.

Yet, it is highly unlikely that Gore will enter the race given the deficit he would have in comparison with the huge sums raised by the party’s other contestants. It makes more sense now to take advantage of the prestige he achieved with the two awards, both of a popular appeal and providing some shielding against criticism, and keep away from the race for the White House for now. Read more at the official page of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize, the IPCC official web page and Al Gore’s official web page.