Since 1986, the calendar politician of Brazil includes a great electoral dispute to each two years. The next one will be in October of 2008, when elections in more than the 5,500 cities of the country will occur. Later, in October of 2010, we will have elections in 27 states (governors and state legislatures), for the National Congress (all the Chamber of Members of the house of representatives and 2/3 of the Senate) and for the presidency of the Republic. It sees as the forces politics are if locating in each one of these disputes.


Since 1986, Brazil’s political calendar has included a big electoral contest, every two years. The next one will be in October 2008, when the country’s more than 5,500 municipalities will choose their mayors. Then, in October 2010, there will be elections in 27 states (governors and state legislatures), National Congress (the whole of the Chamber of Deputies and 2/3 of the Senate), and for the presidency of the Republic.

The Supreme Electoral Tribunal, the institution responsible for coordinating the process, released last September the 2008 electoral calendar.

Elections will be held on October 5, 2008. In cities with more than 200,000 voters, a second round is to be held on October 26. Parties planning to take part in the elections and run for any of the offices must file their statutes at least one year before the ballot, and candidates must be domiciled in the same electoral district for the same period.

All political parties must publish, in the Union’s Register, the norms guiding the nomination and substitution of candidates, and their respective coalitions, by April 8, 2008. July 5, 2008 is the deadline for political parties or coalitions to file with the electoral registrar a petition requesting the registration of its candidates.

In practice, this means that the phase for the definition of candidates to the offices of mayor, vice-mayor, and city councilors throughout Brazil will be open from October 5, 2007 to July 5, 2008.

Beyond the strictly municipal dimension, the 2008 elections constitute, too, a preparatory stage to the 2010 quasi-general elections. Campaign rhetoric, alliances and, principally, victories obtained in the major Brazilian cities (which have more than 200,000 voters) will signal the trends for 2010, though there is no automatic relation between one campaign and the other.

In 2004, for example, the Workers’ Party (PT) suffered an important defeat in the municipal elections, losing the governments of São Paulo, Belém and Porto Alegre. This however neither prevented the party from being the most voted in the 2006 elections for deputies, nor kept Lula from winning the presidential elections.

Four great forces are bracing for the 2008 elections: the opposition (DEM and PSDB), the Workers’ Party, the leftist bloc (PSB, PCdoB, PDT) and the PMDB. Though still a little early to anticipate reshufflings and candidacies, one thing is sure: there will be a movement to isolate the Workers’ Party.

Inside the PT, on the other hand, important definitions are still pending. For example, it is still unknown in how many cities it will be necessary to hold primaries to choose the party’s candidates, but a balloting process has already been established for the cities of Diadema, Santo André, Mauá (all in the state of São Paulo) and Vila Velha (in the state of Espírito Santo).

Four mayoral elections are particularly important, for they take place in the electoral bases of the main forces contending in the 2008 elections and in places where the big media is already trying to interfere in the 2010 electoral process by pointing potential presidential pre-candidates: in Porto Alegre, of Dilma Roussef, Tarso Genro, and Nelson Jobim; in São Paulo, of Marta Suplicy and José Serra; in Belo Horizonte, of Aécio Neves and Patrus Ananias; and in Fortaleza, of Ciro Gomes.

Let us quickly see how the PT and the PSDB are positioning themselves in each of these races.

In Porto Alegre (in the state of Rio Grande do Sul), two strong pre candidacies (Miguel Rosseto, former minister of Agrarian Development, and Maria do Rosário, federal deputy and a PT second national vice-president) will fight for the nomination. The PSDB controls the state government, and the PMDB controls the government of the capital city of Porto Alegre.

In São Paulo, ex-mayor and incumbent minister of Tourism Marta Suplicy is expected to decide now in October if she will run in the election. In case she decides not to, there should be a primary to choose the Party’s candidate with, so far, at least three possible alternatives: Arlindo Chinaglia, the speaker of the Chamber of Deputies; Jilmar Tatto, federal deputy and a PT third national vice-president; and Aloizio Mercadante, a senator of the Republic. The PSDB controls the government of the state of São Paulo, with José Serra; the DEM controls the city of São Paulo, with Gilberto Kassab. An important detail: José Serra prefers Kassab for candidate, while Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB and the ex-candidate to the presidency of the Republic) also wishes to run for the city hall.

The PT has been governing Belo Horizonte for three consecutive terms. The incumbent mayor is Fernando Pimentel, while Patrus Ananias, a Lula government Minister of Social Development and Combat against Hunger, is a strong name for the electoral race. If the candidate is not Patrus, there are many potential nominees inside the PT. The PSDB controls the state government with Aécio Neves, another pre candidate to the presidency of the Republic.

In Fortaleza, Luizianne Lins (PT) will run for reelection. Cid Gomes (PSB) runs the state government, while his brother, Ciro Gomes, a former Lula administration minister and federal deputy is also pointed as a likely presidential candidate. With regard to Ciro Gomes, we recommend the reading of the interview published in magazine Carta Capital of September 26, 2007.

It is still unclear in which setting the 2008 elections will take place. Important sectors of the PT believe the economic framework will be favorable, since they trust that the domestic situation will not be affected by the international instability. They also believe that the social context will keep improving, with more jobs and income for the popular sectors. Even if that is true, there are sectors with another reading of the electoral scene: the accomplishments of the Lula government will not automatically translate into victories of the parties supporting the federal administration and, in particular, they will not translate into PT victories.

Important sectors of the PT consider that the attacks against the party, fueled by the recent ruling by the Supreme Federal Tribunal in favor of starting a judicial process against important PT leaders (among whom are José Dirceu, José Genoíno, deputies and ex-party leaders), will be neutralized in part by denunciations involving the PSDB in an illegal campaign-funding scheme.

In 1998, the PSDB campaign for the government of Minas Gerais was the beneficiary of a slush fund. One of the scheme’s architects was publicist Marcos Valério. Among its direct beneficiaries was the then gubernatorial candidate, later the PSDB national president and today senator, Eduardo Azeredo. Another direct beneficiary was the then deputy candidate, the incumbent governor of Minas Gerais, Aécio Neves. A third beneficiary, in the words of the unsuspected Azeredo, was reelection candidate Fernando Henrique Cardoso.

Years later, the opposition, as well as the media controlled by the right, saw in the involvement between petistas and Marcos Valério a one-only chance of attacking the Lula government and the whole of the Workers’ Party. With that purpose, they transformed a classical case of “slush funds” into “the greatest corruption scandal in the Brazilian history” and in an attempt to “subvert democratic institutionality”.

To synthesize these two crimes, they adopted the expression coined by the then deputy Roberto Jefferson, the “mensalão” (big monthly), which, ever since 2005, has been repeated ad nauseam in every newspaper, radio station, TV station, and electronic site in the country.

During 2005, at the height of the attacks against the PT, the events that took place in 1998, in the PSDB campaign, surfaced. Two years later, in the wake of the trial that accepted the denunciation against important PT leaders, there approaches the hour of truth for the inquest involving the toucans, as PSDB partisans are called.

In face of this situation, part of the press openly adopts double standards. When it involves the left, they call it the “mensalão petista”. Yet, when it involves the PSDB, they dub it the “mensalão mineiro”.

Another part of the press speaks of a “tucanoduto” (a toucan pipeline), yet opts for casting more light on those involved who have ties with the PT or the Lula government.

This has an explanation: in 1998, Eduardo Azeredo was the governor of Minas Gerais running for reelection. The election was decided in the second round, between Azeredo and the also candidate Itamar Franco, who eventually came out victorious.

The Workers’ Party recommended a vote in Itamar Franco, but important PT leaders openly supported the Azeredo candidacy. Several of those who supported the toucan candidate are on a list of people who were allegedly benefited with illegal funding.

One of the coordinators of the Azeredo campaign was Walfrido dos Mares Guia, the incumbent minister of institutional relations in the Lula administration. Federal Police investigations point to Mares Guia as having been involved with the campaign’s financial area.

And the process against the president of the Senate, Renan Calheiros, proceeds.

The voting session result on the impeachment of Renan Calheiros was very narrow: 40 votes in his favor, 35 votes for the impeachment, and 6 abstentions. To impeach the senator, 41 votes were necessary, which means that the abstentions were strategic for the final result.

Although the session was secret, it is openly speculated that the abstentions came from the PT. The party itself did not decide on the matter. And the party’s Senate representation, split over what to do, abstained from recommending a vote.

Differences of opinion, within the PT, are not limited to the episode in the Senate.

The 3rd Workers’ Party National Congress when addressing the theme of the electoral strategy states that victories in 2008 are important to strengthen the political base for 2010.

At the same time, it reaffirms the need to preserve the government’s coalition and the unwavering defense of the interests of the Workers’ Party. It suggests the organization of a broad debate toward the formulation of a program for the 2011/2014 term of office and “building on it submit a petista candidate to succeed Lula, capable of leading, together with other parties, a broad partisan and social coalition, and winning the 2010 elections”.

Even after the Party’s 3rd Congress there still remain differences as to the tactic and the candidacies for 2008 and 2010, and assessments to be made of the political alliances and the coalition government, the government’s actions and even the economic policy.

These differences will be publicly debated in the electoral process for new party leaders, scheduled for December 2 and 16, 2007. Also to be debated are the presidential candidates’ platforms with a view to materializing the resolutions approved by the 3rd Congress.

On October 9, slates and candidacies for all levels taking part in the election are to register.

More than 1 million petistas throughout the country will be invited to choose their local, state, and national boards and presidents.

The vote for president is nominal. If no candidate obtains 50% of the votes plus one vote, there will be a second round between the two most voted candidates on December 16.

The vote for the board is in a list (a slate). Slates are registered on October 9. By the end of the election, on December 2, the boards will be composed on the basis of direct proportionality (the more votes a slate gets, the more seats it holds in the respective board).

The Direct Elections Process (PED) will be another moment of reflection upon the risks and opportunities of this historical moment lived by the PT and its militants.

In order to win the 2008 municipal elections as stated in the documents approved by the 3rd Congress, we will have to present to society a party attuned with the expectations of the Brazilian society. A party which has a project for the nation, committed to perfecting democracy and income distribution, with sustainable development and focused on guaranteeing basic rights and social justice.

A vital condition for an electoral victory in 2010, and for the PT to continue implementing the changes and transformations the country needs.