Rodrigo Amaral, a professor of International Relations at PUC-SP, explains the real interests behind the conflict and does not currently see any imminent risk of a \u201cthird world war.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the early hours of last Friday (February 28), a coordinated airstrike led by the military command of the United States and Israel hit Tehran, the capital of Iran, leaving more than 200 dead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Illuminated by bombs and aircraft, Tehran\u2019s sky signaled the beginning of what the country would soon face: another episode in the horrors of war spreading across the Middle East, especially since Israel\u2019s initial attacks on Palestine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The main targets, according to the justification presented by both countries, were the Command and Control Center of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the bunker where Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was located\u2014the ayatollah\u2019s death was confirmed hours later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The offensive led by Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, in addition to resulting in the deaths of hundreds of children, was officially justified as \u201cpreventive self-defense\u201d and based on Iran\u2019s alleged nuclear capabilities. However, for Rodrigo Amaral, this is yet another fallacy of American liberalism. \u201cWhat Trump is doing could be described as a form of \u2018open imperialism,\u2019 in which he openly demonstrates an immediate desire to overthrow the Islamic regime in order to project power and, consequently, gain access to Iran\u2019s natural resources,\u201d he explains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Iran is one of the world\u2019s largest oil producers, with an estimated production of around 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, according to data from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). This represents about 12% of global reserves, with China as its main destination. \u201cIn addition, the country is strategically important from a geopolitical standpoint, as it connects Asia to Europe and includes the Strait of Hormuz, through which more than 30% of the world\u2019s oil passes. In other words, controlling Iran is the real ambition behind this conflict.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The expert also points out that armed conflict is not the only way the United States imposes itself on political adversaries. \u201cImperialism is not limited to missile attacks. Economic sanctions against Iran, for example, have been in place for decades. That is why the U.S. is now intensifying Iran\u2019s isolation, including through threats to its trade partners.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Third World War?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Immediately after the first images of the conflict were released, social media analytics platforms such as Santiment and Google Trends showed a sharp increase in searches for the term \u201cthird world war.\u201d Whether through memes or supposedly \u201ctechnical\u201d posts, the idea of a global conflict quickly dominated online discussions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amaral, however, is categorical in stating that there is no concrete evidence of other nations becoming involved\u2014especially China and Russia. \u201cThe use of the term \u2018third world war\u2019 is indeed alarmist. There is nothing indicating a truly global involvement. At worst, this is likely to remain a regional conflict involving Iran\u2019s neighbors. I do not believe we are facing a third world war at this moment. The expression dates back to the Cold War and would imply the use of nuclear weapons. It is important to note that Iran does not have military nuclear capability, and there is no indication of involvement from Russia or China, which are counter-hegemonic actors to the West.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Domestic issues<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Beyond alarmism about a possible global conflict, there is a growing perception that Trump\u2019s decision to initiate a new war serves as a distraction from internal crises in the United States. Factors such as persistent inflation, geopolitical pressures affecting energy prices, immigration crackdowns, and labor market uncertainty have created a tense economic environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Part of the public response has been clear. \u201cOn one hand, we have a military action that shifts media attention toward war and away from domestic issues that Trump has been facing, such as accusations of human rights violations against immigrants or people of Latin descent, as well as corruption allegations dating back to his first term. So, the context of crisis may be intensifying external actions, and this has been quite evident in his second administration.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amaral also notes that, beyond the current conflict, Trump has implemented actions such as the alleged \u201cabduction\u201d of Venezuelan president Nicol\u00e1s Maduro, unconditional support for Israel in opposition to Palestine, and repeated suggestions of annexing Greenland, an autonomous territory belonging to Denmark. \u201cAll these actions demonstrate a desire to assert hegemonic power by force, but they also reveal clear contradictions in terms of legitimacy.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Is Brazil at risk?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Donald Trump\u2019s foreign policy has already put Brazilian sovereignty at risk with the so-called \u201ctariff hike,\u201d which proposed increases of up to 50% on Brazilian products. The reversal came after a combination of diplomatic negotiations\u2014led by President Lula\u2014legal actions, and ultimately a decision by the U.S. Supreme Court declaring the tariffs illegal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Economic threats have not been entirely ruled out, but they are unlikely to result in any military intervention. \u201cI do not believe that is possible, although economic interventions may still occur. What could happen is a stronger stance from Trump\u2019s administration due to the connection between Brazilian elites and its own interests.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Rodrigo Amaral, a professor of International Relations at PUC-SP, explains the real interests behind the conflict and does not currently see any imminent risk of a \u201cthird world war.\u201d In the early hours of last Friday (February 28), a coordinated airstrike led by the military command of the United States and Israel hit Tehran, the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":188413,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"area":[6465],"coluna":[],"decada":[],"edicao":[],"localidade":[],"marcador_especial":[],"projeto":[],"tema":[],"coauthors":[85],"class_list":["post-188476","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-noticia","area-revista-focus"],"ai_analise_foto_capa":"*T\u00edtulo*: Cidade sob nuvem de fuma\u00e7a: Urg\u00eancia em paisagem urbana\n*Resumo Sem\u00e2ntico*: A imagem comunica uma cena de urg\u00eancia e potencial desastre ou evento significativo, mostrando uma vasta e densa coluna de fuma\u00e7a escura elevando-se sobre uma paisagem urbana movimentada, com imponentes montanhas nevadas ao fundo sob um c\u00e9u nublado. O sentimento predominante \u00e9 de alerta, preocupa\u00e7\u00e3o e a gravidade de uma situa\u00e7\u00e3o cr\u00edtica. A grandiosidade da fuma\u00e7a, que domina o horizonte, contrasta fortemente com a aparente estabilidade das montanhas e a densidade dos edif\u00edcios, criando uma tens\u00e3o visual e um senso de impacto ambiental ou social. O p\u00fablico-alvo prov\u00e1vel s\u00e3o pessoas interessadas em not\u00edcias, eventos atuais, quest\u00f5es ambientais, urbanismo, geopol\u00edtica ou impactos de conflitos\/desastres.\n*Descri\u00e7\u00e3o SEO*: Foto impactante de fuma\u00e7a massiva sobre uma cidade densa com montanhas nevadas ao fundo. Ideal para ilustrar artigos e not\u00edcias sobre desastres urbanos, inc\u00eandios de grande escala, explos\u00f5es, polui\u00e7\u00e3o ambiental ou eventos cr\u00edticos que afetam centros urbanos. Imagem de alta resolu\u00e7\u00e3o para conte\u00fado que aborda impactos sociais e ambientais em \u00e1reas metropolitanas globais, relevante para temas de emerg\u00eancia e crises urbanas.\n*Texto na Imagem*: N\u00e3o h\u00e1 texto vis\u00edvel na imagem.\n*Elementos Visuais*:\n* **Cores Predominantes**: Cinza escuro (fuma\u00e7a, nuvens), cinza claro, marrom\/bege (edif\u00edcios), branco (neve nas montanhas), azul (c\u00e9u fragmentado, janelas).\n* **Pessoas**: Nenhuma pessoa individualmente identific\u00e1vel.\n* **Objetos**: Vasta coluna de fuma\u00e7a, pr\u00e9dios urbanos variados (residenciais, comerciais, arranha-c\u00e9us), montanhas nevadas, c\u00e9u com nuvens densas, antenas de comunica\u00e7\u00e3o, guindastes de constru\u00e7\u00e3o (distantes).\n* **S\u00edmbolos**: A fuma\u00e7a como s\u00edmbolo de destrui\u00e7\u00e3o, inc\u00eandio, explos\u00e3o, polui\u00e7\u00e3o ou crise; as montanhas como s\u00edmbolo de perman\u00eancia e natureza contrastando com o evento urbano.\n*Keywords*: Cidade, fuma\u00e7a, montanhas, desastre, urbano, inc\u00eandio, explos\u00e3o, polui\u00e7\u00e3o, emerg\u00eancia, pr\u00e9dios, crise, evento, catastr\u00f3fico, panorama, nuvens.\n*Hashtags*: #DesastreUrbano, #FumacaNaCidade, #Emergencia, #CriseAmbiental, #PaisagemUrbana, #NoticiasGlobais, #EventosAtuais, #CenarioDeImpacto, #PoluicaoVisual, #AlertaUrbano.","ai_analise_outros_anexos":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fpabramo.org.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/188476","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fpabramo.org.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fpabramo.org.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fpabramo.org.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fpabramo.org.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=188476"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/fpabramo.org.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/188476\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":188480,"href":"https:\/\/fpabramo.org.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/188476\/revisions\/188480"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fpabramo.org.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/188413"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fpabramo.org.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=188476"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fpabramo.org.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=188476"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fpabramo.org.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=188476"},{"taxonomy":"area","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fpabramo.org.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/area?post=188476"},{"taxonomy":"coluna","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fpabramo.org.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coluna?post=188476"},{"taxonomy":"decada","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fpabramo.org.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/decada?post=188476"},{"taxonomy":"edicao","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fpabramo.org.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/edicao?post=188476"},{"taxonomy":"localidade","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fpabramo.org.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/localidade?post=188476"},{"taxonomy":"marcador_especial","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fpabramo.org.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/marcador_especial?post=188476"},{"taxonomy":"projeto","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fpabramo.org.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/projeto?post=188476"},{"taxonomy":"tema","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fpabramo.org.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tema?post=188476"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fpabramo.org.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=188476"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}